In a press conference, IMD chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra asserted that the data from 1951 to 2023 portrayed that India saw above-normal monsoon rainfall on nine occasions when La Nina followed the El Nino event.
India is expected to see above-normal rainfall this monsoon and rainfall is estimated at 106 per cent of the long-period average of 87 cm, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) stated.
In a press conference, IMD chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra asserted that the data from 1951 to 2023 portrayed that India saw above-normal monsoon rainfall on nine occasions when La Nina followed the El Nino event.
"India is likely to see above-normal rainfall in the four-month monsoon season (June to September) with cumulative rainfall estimated at 106 per cent of the long-period average (87 cm)," he stated.
India got "below-average" cumulative rainfall -- 820 mm compared to the long-period average of 868.6 mm -- in 2023, an El Nino year. Before 2023, India recorded "normal" and "above-normal" rainfall in the monsoon for four years consecutively.
El Nino conditions -- periodic warming of surface waters in the central Pacific Ocean -- are linked with weaker monsoon winds and drier conditions in India.
Presently, moderate El Nino conditions exist over the equatorial Pacific region.
Besides this, private weather forecasting agency Skymet stated that India is expected to report a 'normal' monsoon in June-September this year.
As per this forecast, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh will get adequate rainfall. States such as Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha and West Bengal are likely to get lower rainfall during peak monsoon months of July-August. As per Skymet: "Northeast India is likely to observe less than normal rains during the first half of the season."
(with inputs from PTI)
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 "Weather update: IMD predicts above-normal monsoon rainfall in India this year; check state-wise forecast")
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