Rajya Sabha Battle Royale: 16 states and 58 seats

When Prime Minister Narendra Modi stormed to power at the Centre in 2014, his BJP ruled seven states in the country. Four years later, the party is ruling, either by itself or as part of an alliance, 22 of India's 29 states — an unprecedented electoral feat. And despite Friday's pullout by key ally Telegu Desam Party (TDP), and the no-confidence scare surrounding it, ruling coalition NDA continues to have a comfortable majority in the Lok Sabha.

But BJP and its partners have still faced difficulty, and sometimes embarrassment, in pushing their legislative agenda because the Opposition has the majority in the Rajya Sabha. BJP has 58 members — it overtook Congress (57) to become the largest party in the Rajya Sabha in August last year. BJP's allies take the number to 82. But in the 250-member House, the majority mark is 126. It is in this context that the March 23 election to 58 Rajya Sabha seats becomes critical.

The replacement of retiring Rajya Sabha members is also important because it is happening when Opposition parties are scrambling to band together for next year's general elections, following BJP's loss in the three Lok Sabha by-elections on Wednesday.

The states from where members are retiring are Uttar Pradesh (10), Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Telangana and Rajasthan (three each), Bihar and Maharashtra (six each), West Bengal and Madhya Pradesh (five each), Karnataka and Gujarat (four each), Jharkhand (two), and Chhattisgarh, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand (one each).

The members, whose terms are ending, include Union ministers Arun Jaitley, Ravi Shankar Prasad, Dharmendra Pradhan, JP Nadda, Thaawar Chand Gehlot and Ramdas Athawale. Most of them have already been declared elected unopposed.

Since Rajya Sabha members are elected by MLAs, and BJP has won a number of states in the recent past, the party is likely to add about 15 members to its tally. Rough estimates show that the NDA number in the Upper House of Parliament can reach, or marginally cross, the 100 mark. Most gains are likely to come from Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand, where BJP swept elections last year. There will be some respite as Congress and the rest of the Opposition are set to lose 30 MPs. But the ruling party will continue to require the support of regional parties like AIADMK and BJD for passage of Bills.

Deadlock

"Rajya Sabha has been an area of concern for the BJP-led NDA for a long time. Gains in Rajya Sabha would definitely provide the much-needed respite for our party because we would now have more numerical strength against Congress and other Opposition parties," said a senior BJP leader, who is also a member of the Upper House.

In January, the Lok Sabha passed the Muslim Women (Protection of Rights on Marriage) Bill-2017 that proposes to make instant triple talaq a non-bailable offence with a three-year jail term for guilty husbands. The Bill got stuck in the Rajya Sabha. It has not been passed despite frequent requests made to parties by PM Modi. Congress has protested abrupt penal provisions for a customary practice that was legal till August last year when the Supreme Court ruled it as unconstitutional.

Another key piece of legislation stuck in the Rajya Sabha is the National Commission for Backward Classes (Repeal) Bill, 2017. It has also not been passed despite being on top of the Prime Minister's priority. The Bill seeks to grant constitutional status to the OBC Commission. Once the Bill is passed, the Commission will become as powerful as the National Commission for Scheduled Castes and the National Commission for Schedule Tribes.

"The two Bills are important for the government and also for the party. There is a deliberate attempt by Opposition parties to delay and block the two Bills. Electorally, BJP under PM Modi has done well in the last four years. Our increased strength will soon reflect in the Rajya Sabha and help in passage of such legislations," the BJP leader added.

Short-cuts

The Centre has been forced to take the ordinance route. Governments promulgate Ordinances to bypass parliamentary debates in the face of hostile Opposition parties, but all such pieces of legislation are deemed lapsed if not passed by both Houses within six months. The government has also had to declare key legislations as Money Bills that need to be passed only in the Lok Sabha and the Rajya Sabha cannot stall it. About 40 Bills are pending in the Upper House.

"It was embarrassing when the motion to thank the President for his address to the joint session of Parliament had to be amended twice under the Opposition pressure," said another BJP leader.

BJP may lose a couple of seats in Gujarat and one in Bihar, but it is confident of winning at least eight in Uttar Pradesh, one in Uttarakhand, one in Rajasthan, two in Jharkhand and one in Haryana. Another state where the BJP is expected to do well is Maharashtra but the Rajya Sabha election could also reflect its ongoing tussle with alliance partner Shiv Sena.

Samajwadi Party will lose a massive share from Uttar Pradesh in the March 23 election that will also reduce Congress' tally by a few more seats. "BJP and its allies are in power in a lot of states, and hence, its slow dominance in Rajya Sabha is on expected lines. While in the next round of election, the bench strength in the House will tilt in favour of BJP, it is not going to totally change its composition," said a Congress leader.

Congress will win only six seats on its own, while it is banking on other parties to have its leaders elected. It is relying on TMC in West Bengal for Abhishek Manu Singhvi's election. Singhvi retired as an MP from Rajasthan.

The election will also have a symbolic messaging ahead of Assembly elections in Karnataka, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh later this year, before the 2019 battle. "The Rajya Sabha election is a step in the direction to gain numerical advantage and strength, giving the government greater control against the Opposition. It will be relatively easier for BJP to collaborate with other political parties and it may sober the Opposition parties," said N Bhaskara Rao, a New Delhi-based political analyst.

EC Lessons

The Election Commission has drawn lessons from last year's midnight drama in Gujarat when it had to cancel the votes of two rebel Congress MLAs leading to senior Congress leader Ahmed Patel's win a bitterly-fought battle with a wafer-thin margin. The votes cast by Bholabhai Gohil and Raghavjibhai Patel had to be cancelled for allegedly showing their ballots to BJP chief Amit Shah in violation of rules. In the past, Congress leader Randeep Surjewala's vote was also cancelled for showing it to someone other than the authorised party representative, though the person in question was from his own party.

The EC has sent communication to the chief electoral officers of all states and Union Territories, changing layout design of electoral booths inside state Assemblies. It has asked for "strict compliance" to the separate layouts prescribed for all future Rajya Sabha and state legislative council elections. The new layout will ensure that an MLA is able to show his/her marked ballot only to his/her party representative before he/she walks through a secure corridor to put it in the ballot box.

HOW ARE RAJYA SABHA MEMBERS ELECTED?

Members of state Assemblies elect Rajya Sabha members by what is called proportional representation with a single transferable vote. Each voter ranks his or her preference, and if the first candidate on the list has enough votes to win, or no chance of winning, the vote is transferred to the next choice and so on. Members of the Rajya Sabha are elected for a term of six years. One-third of the members of Rajya Sabha or the Upper House of Parliament retire after every two years.