UP Elections 2017 Phase 7: For PM Modi and BJP, stakes are higher than ever before

For a city dating back several thousand years in history, witnessing a change of monarchs and rulers is not unique. On Wednesday, March 8, Varanasi will witness a fight that may give us early indications of which way the wind will blow in Indian politics for the next few years. It is for this reason that the significance of the five-odd seats in Varanasi can’t be undermined even if it's only a small proportion of the 400-plus seats in Uttar Pradesh. If BJP slips in the Prime Minister's home territory, it may spell doom for the party elsewhere.

PM Narendra Modi is aware of this, and a tardy choice of candidates including dropping a seven-time MLA has only added to his headache. Hence the surgical strike-style campaigning in the holy city with the PM camping for three days continuously aided by 19 Union Ministers. It is an unprecedented mobilisation of resources for a state election. But the stakes remain incredibly high for all the parties. A win for BJP will give it a key to a majority in the Rajya Sabha, leading to speedy passage of bills without the Opposition playing spoilsport. Similarly, BJP detractors will hope for a Bihar-like redux which can give Opposition a boost ahead of Gujarat elections later in the year, and several state polls next year. It will break the aura of near invincibility that the PM enjoys currently, and bring back a more level playing field.

Rahul Gandhi and Akhilesh Yadav campaigning (PTI)

Seven districts namely Ghazipur, Varanasi, Chandauli, Mirzapur, Jaunpur, Bhadohi, and Sonebhadra are going to polls on Tuesday. Many of the districts are made up of small traders, artisans, and craftsmen who took a severe hit thanks to demonetization. It is up to the Opposition to exploit that anger against the BJP. The saffron party has continued with its agenda of trying to consolidate the upper caste, non-Yadav OBC, and non-Yadav Dalit votes in its kitty. OBCs and tribals form a major share of the vote bank in the seventh phase, and NDA’s prominent faces have made a beeline to woo the voters. Mayawati too has a sizeable vote share in this part of South-Eastern UP, and schemes like house projects for the poor started by her as the chief minister are remembered fondly. 

Samajvadi Party (SP) won 23 out of 40 seats in 2012 and Congress won 3. BJP could only manage to get 4. Cut to 2014, BJP was ahead in 35 of these assembly segments, getting a lion’s share of the votes. The worst hit was SP, with close to 20% attrition in vote share. This time around the party is hopeful of a turnaround with Congress as an ally. Rahul Gandhi’s Congress has been underwhelming throughout the election season but it has a chance to be counted when and where it matters the most. The grand old party still holds some pockets of influence in Varanasai, Ghazipur, Bhadohi, and it can prop up the alliance in case it turns out to be a really close fight.

The seventh phase, like the ones before, has seen politicians sniping at each other, often with uncharitable remarks. From Yogi Adityanath calling Akhilesh Yadav "worse than Aurangazeb and Kans" to Rahul Gandhi branding Modi "an old man", politicians have often crossed the lakshman rekha of decency. Under he garbs of vikas, thinly veiled communal politics has been played by all the parties. But all that will be forgotten after March 11 when the results come out. Expect the parties to justify post-poll alliances if voters fail to give a conclusive mandate.

The average voting percentage in the last two phases have kept all the sides iffy. It is anyone’s guess which party has missed out on getting the extra votes. But what politicians will not miss is the hectic campaign for the last one and a half month. The dice has been rolled and it is time to wait for the janadesh.