On the eve of finalising the number of seats to contest in the October 15 Assembly elections, the BJP seems to have blinked first to keep the 25 year old Hindutva alliance steady and going. In the last one week of hectic and strident negotiations between the Shiv Sena and BJP it often seemed that the alliance may fall apart.
What will the seat allocations for the Shiv Sena-BJP alliance be?
It is quite likely that the BJP will settle for 125 seats, ten less than what they were demanding all this while. The Shiv Sena is likely to retain the 169 seats which they fought in 2009. The rest will go to the minor allies.
Why did the BJP blink?
As reported in these columns earlier, there was never any question of the alliance breaking apart since both parties know that if they fight seperately they will also drown together. The BJP is the junior partner in the alliance but this time wanted to grab the senior position but the Shiv Sena, knowing well that they are stronger and better organised party refused to budge. Leaders from the Sena and BJP admit that with them being perceived to be in striking distance of power breaking up over a seat-sharing pact made little sense.
What was the role of Amit Shah is breaking the deadlock?
BJP president Amit Shah during his visit to Mumbai struck a conciliatory note. Never for once did he say that the alliance is in danger. The poor showing of the BJP in the bypolls did not help matters durint seat discussions. Though Shah did not meet Udhav Thackeray it was evident that a pact would be signed. "We want the alliance to continue," said Shiv Sena Rajya Sabha MP Sanjay Raut, while however adding that this had to confirm with Maharashtra and the Sena's self-respect.
What will the Shiv Sena finally get?
Udhav Thackeray wants to be chief minister and the party is unlikely to accept the BJP formula of the party with the most seats getting the CM post. The Sena says they have given more seats to BJP in the Lok Sabha elections and will not compromise now. The plus point for the alliance is that they lead in 243 of the 288 assembly seats as per the general elections and looks good enough to retain much of the lead.
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