From isolating Pakistan to subtle China outreach: 7 takeaways from PM Modi's speech

At times of great distress, a country looks up to its leader. Not only to provide direction, but to give a moral compass to the citizens of the nation. Any leader who abrogates his duties to guide the people properly in times of moral turpitude and takes the shortcut of going with the flow runs the risk of being judged harshly by history. It would be fair to say that PM Modi has at least dodged a bullet on this account by being a voice of reason amid heightened war frenzy sparked by the Pak-orchestrated brutality in Uri. Modi’s words at Kozhikode during the BJP’s national executive meet may well become the gold standard of using restrained aggression to assuage frayed nerves. While the PM elaborated on certain aspects of the ongoing feud with Pakistan, he vaguely hinted at some others. Here are the major takeaways from his speech and subsequent Mann Ki Baat, based on things he said and things that he carefully omitted: 

1. War is not the default option

During the election trail, PM Modi had banked on heightened rhetoric to whip up frenzy. But the compulsion of real politics has meant that a much more sombre Modi government is approaching the complicated issue in a carefully calibrated manner which seems to have angered his vocal online supporters. Both during his Kozhikode rally and Mann ki Baat, the PM said that perpetrators of Uri attack will not be unpunished. During his radio dialogue, he also praised the army and said they’d continue to do their work efficiently.

This broadly indicates that there will be heightened alertness to stop further infiltrations and brutally cut short any harmful antics by the  Pak army. But the Indian government is unlikely to claim on record about any operation by crossing the border. Even limited options like surgical strikes are likely to be off-the-table for now. While this goes against the prevailing mood amongst our keyboard warriors, most sane people would be against a full-fledged war between two nuclear countries. By absorbing the public pressure and the expectations of his voting base, Modi has leveraged the mandate he enjoys.

2. India is winning the economic war

India exports software, while Pakistan exports terror was one of the most loved punchlines from Modi’s speech. It was abundantly clear that PM wanted to convey the message to his voters that India is winning the economic war. While Pak economy is state of flex, India’s has been hailed as the next big thing. It’s growth rate has eclipsed China and the India story has been robust despite global downturns. India’s real soft power is its people and the software example was just a totem for the enormous hardworking Indians have earned for their nation across the globe. While Pak is a basket case, India is on the cusp of glory. An ill-timed war is the last thing such an aspiring super-power needs.

3.  Diplomatic isolation of Pakistan to intensify

Pakistan for long has tried to punch above its weight by playing the Kashmir card. But the fact that it is a perpetrator and breeding ground for terror is not missed by the global community. Its strategic geo-political importance has meant countries like the US provided aid to fight the Talibans but Pakistan’s continued flirtation with terror outfits has meant that even Uncle Sam and other world powers are running out of patience.

India will seek to use this window and press for Pakistan’s isolation globally. Modi highlighted on the theme of Pak being the ‘Ivy league of Terror’ by recollecting how Osama was holed up in a fortress in Abbottabad and how the likes of Ahmad Khan Rahami received training in Pakistan. So far India has had limited success in this regard but efforts will continue.

4.  Modi tacitly gives a message to China

In his speech, Modi very significantly mentioned that this century can be Asia’s and there is only one country which is trying to scuttle that dream.  India and China are the two giants alongside Japan who are expected to propel the Asian growth story. By saying that Pakistan can hamper the growth story, Modi indicated to China that supporting the rogue nation can be counter-productive to them in the future. Any future war or atmosphere of terror is likely to cast its shadow over economic prosperity and China will not be immune to that backlash in an increasingly connected global trading community.

5.  Talk with Pak establishment off the table for now

PM Modi clearly hinted that unless and until there is a course correction from Pakistan, there will not be any further talks. He said that talks with Pak leaders are futile as their leaders read speeches written by terrorists. It hinted at how the Pak deep state is controlling the narrative in the neighbouring country and India believes no good will be served in exchanging pleasantries when jawans are shot down at the border.

But this strategy has its limitation.  Sooner than later, India has to get back on the talking table with Pakistan. Whether it can extract some tangible action before that is something worth tracking. Pakistan’s ‘concessions’ may depend on how successful India is in isolating Pakistan globally. 

6. India will no longer be defensive about Kashmir and counters like Baloch will be used

For a very long time, Pakistan has tried to put India on the mat by raising demands for self-right of Kashmiris. India has steadfastly rejected but yet, Pakistan has continued its attack unfettered. Modi by raising the point of Pakistan unable to govern PoK, Balochistan, Gilgit has made it amply clear that India will use those niggles to bleed the neighbour as and when they are up to their old tricks. In the war of diplomacy, India will no longer play the nice guy and take hits. It will practice deterrence, but if hit, will not shy away from retribution. A new phase in Indo-Pak policy may well be based on India increasingly raising the plight of Balochistanis and other Pakistanis at international fora.

7. Pakistani artistes unlikely to be banned

Modi made a clear distinction between Pakistani establishment and Pak people and said healthy competition to remove several lacunas like illiteracy and poverty should be our goal. PM Modi effectively laid down new markers in Indo-Pak relationship, something that is likely to go beyond his time in the office by directly addressing the Pak people.

This is a long game from India to slowly harbour a favourable mindset towards the country among Pakistani people so as to dissuade the generals from war-mongering. In a way, PM himself started a track-2 diplomacy with Pakistanis, by sending out a message of peace and reconciliation. For all the talks of people from India and Pakistan being against war, there hasn’t been any disincentive to the war-mongers from abhorring it. Only a changed public perception can come as a deterrent. While that may take a few decades to actually materialise, it is unlikely that India will take any steps like banning Pak actors as state policy as exchange of culture is often the easiest way to heal the niggling wounds.

PM Modi in his Mann ki Baat said, anger and anguish is a sign of national awareness. He recalled Lal Bahadur Shastri and Mahatma Gandhi using that to positive and constructive intent in the past.  Modi’s biggest challenge will be to divert the inferno of rage without getting gutted by it and not letting the Pakistanis off the hook. An uphill task indeed, but not impossible surely.