Patel and OBC voters maintain an unpredictable silence over their inclinations these elections
The North Gujarat region has a combination of communities which carry weight across different seats. While Mehsana is a Patel bastion, Patan is dominated by Thakors, Banaskantha has Chaudharys and tribals, and Sabarkantha and Arvalli are dominated by the Rajput community.
Average voting in these areas was close to 75 per cent, almost the same as the 74.61 per cent turnout in the 2012 assembly polls.
Congress spokesperson Jayrajsinh Parmar said, "The second phase polls have good number of voting percentage and that shows that people are against the ruling party. The anti-incumbency prevailed in almost all regions and the huge turnout of voters indicates that they have vented out their angst against BJP through voting."
However, the actual picture could be different from what the Congress believes. The party had won over 18 seats out of total 33 and BJP won over 15, but the selection of candidates by Congress this time has caused some unrest among local party workers. Alpesh Thakor, a Thakor community leader, joined Congress and managed tickets for his loyalists, a move that that could affect the party losing seats even where the BJP was on the backfoot.
"The candidate's list for North Gujarat was the indication that party will lose badly in North Gujarat, although situation was favourable here," a senior Congress leader said on condition of anonymity. "The local workers were disappointed and they remained inactive throughout the elections. The agitation impact was so high in north Gujarat and Congress could have exploited the situation, but now every thing rests upon the day of counting. I hope for some good results for Congress. I will be happy if the picture of 2012 is repeated at leaset, however, I assume it would be less than that."
In Patan, the Thakor community is influenced by Alpesh Thakor but BJP also selected strong candidates from Thakor community against Congress candidates. However, it is estimated that BJP may face defeat in Patan district except for Chanasma constituency. On the other hand, Chaudhary community has given equal number of leaders to both parties and they vote for faces and not the party. Shankar Chaudhary, a young OBC face of the BJP and a minister, has a good hold over the community here, on the other side, Dhanera candidate Nathabhai Patel also is a big name here in Chaudhary community. Banaskantha has three such seats where the Chaudhary community rules and the fight will be tough between BJP and Congress here, but both Chaudhary and Patel could win this time, while Tharad will see the tussle between Chaudhary and Rajput candidates.
The tribal community in Banaskantha and Sabarkantha district has always remained with Congress and party candidates have a strong change of winning here again. In Sabarkantha and Arvalli districts, the calibre of candidates will be tested as Rajput community also votes for faces and not for the party. The BJP and Congress could get an almost equal number of seats out of seven in Sabarkatha and Arvalli, plus or minus one.
Mehsana's picture also looks in favour of BJP as the Patel community seems dejected over the reservation formula; however, the Congress can hope for one seat in this district. Gandhinagar district has total four seats and the BJP can get two to three seats here.
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