There is a sense of optimism at the BJP headquarters after the Assam election.
A high-stake battle, it is the only state the party has hopes of winning this year, and a victory would halt its losing streak after Delhi and Bihar. Besides, the BJP is banking on Assam to create a gateway into the northeast, a territory so far unconquered by the saffron party.
The party has set its eyes on another five of the eight northeastern states -- Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Mizoram, Manipur and Sikkim. These, according to a party leader, do not have a hardcore anti-BJP approach. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's focus on the northeast and the idea of two ministers traveling to a state each month has helped in reaching out to the people and infusing life into pending projects, the leader said.
The BJP's northeast plans would get a boost if it wins Assam. An internal party assessment after the first round of polling in 65 seats, which recorded 78 per cent polling, gave a sweep to the party, sources said. After the second phase, which recorded 82 per cent polling, there was some apprehension about the fallout of the high voter turnout in a state with a 34.2 per cent Muslim population.
Party leaders claimed that the Muslim vote had got divided between the Congress and AIUDF giving an advantage to the BJP, which is hoping to consolidate the Hindu vote. The BJP is counting on at least five factors to get an advantage over the Congress, which has ruled the state continuously for 15 years.
Government schemes:
BJP sources said government's welfare schemes were not filtering down to people leading to lack of development in villages. But, there is acknowledgment that the verdict would also be a reflection of the performance of the Modi government over the past two years.
Gogoi's son:
According to BJP sources, fears that chief minister Tarun Gogoi was trying to bring forward his son to take over from him had led to discontentment withing the Congress.
Corruption:
Party sources claimed that corruption charges against the Gogoi government had turned the people against the Congress. However, the BJP is facing questions about inducting former minister and Congress leader Himanta Biswa Sarma, who corruption charges linked to him.
Sarbananda Sonowal:
The protagonist in the BJP's campaign, the party's 53-year-old chief ministerial candidate Sarbananda Sonowal has been projected against Congress's old war horse Tarun Gogoi. The party's campaign revolved around Sonowal, whom it is banking on to capture the youth's support. Political experts in the state, however, say that Sarma had strengthened the BJP.
Indo-Bangladesh Land Swap Agreement
The BJP is hoping to cash in on the anti-immigrant sentiment in the state, a factor which has reflected in speeches of all senior party leaders. The alliance with the AGP has added muscle to this strategy. Party leaders have said that the Land Swap deal has removed a hurdle in sealing the Indo-Bangladesh border.
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