Here are the reasons why, at least in the race for seat-sharing, NDA has taken a slight edge over the Mahagatbandhan or the secular alliance.
NDA finally sealed the seat-sharing deal for the upcoming Bihar assembly elections amidst last minute jitters from Jitan Ram Manjhi. LJP too made some noise on Tuesday, but the protest quickly fizzled out. The BJP has accommodated three of its allies and their egos while sticking to its initial goal of contesting at least 160 seats.
So BJP, with a strike rate close to that in the Lok Sabha elections can realistically dream of coming to power on its own once the results are declared. Whether it will be able to do so, with Lalu and Nitish now forming a comprehensive opposition block, is a different issue though. RJD and JD(U) will be fighting 100 seats each, and they have left 40 seats for Congress which is merely a shadow of its past glory in Bihar, with no real tall leaders to boast of.
Here are the reasons why, at least in the race for seat-sharing, NDA has taken a slight edge over the Mahagatbandhan or the secular alliance.
Internal friction will be less in BJP
The party will be contesting in 160 seats, far greater than it did last time. In fact, for the first time BJP is contesting as a senior partner in the alliance. Although the specifics of the seat-sharing deal (which party will contest from which constituency) has not been revealed, by the dint of its clout the saffron outfit is expected to contest from a chunk of winnable seats. So in the other seats, where the allies will contest, the probability of rebel candidates sabotaging their chance will be comparatively less.
Whereas, for JD(U) and RJD, rebels may contest from several possible winnable seats that may have gone to the quota of another ally. It will need humongous deft from the top leadership of JD(U) and RJD to keep their flock together and not fight against each other at the ground level.
Containing Jitan Ram Manjhi's demand
Jitan Ram Manjhi is like the political joker in this electoral game. A mid-level leader of JD(U), Manjhi shot to fame when Nitish Kumar elevated him to the post of the CM. Later Nitish Kumar sacked Manjhi, creating a martyr out of him. PM Modi in almost every rally has harped on the fact that Nitish Kumar insulted a Mahadalit.
In a way, BJP hopes to wean Mahagatbandhan's formidable Dalit vote-bank by propping up Manjhi. However, his actual clout on ground is a suspect. Manjhi initially demanded 40 seats, more than that of LJP. But the BJP put its foot down and conceded 20. Five candidates from Manjhi's party will contest on BJP ticket. Thus, it has kept Manjhi politically relevant and interested without conceding too much ground. A strategy which may hold them in good stead in the coming elections.
Congress fighting in 40 seats
Congress is the weakest link in the Mahagatbandhan. In any case, the party organisation is at a nadir in Bihar and, nationally, the grand old party's fortunes are floundering. After winning just 44 seats in the Lok Sabha elections, it has slumped to dismal fortunes in consecutive state elections in Haryana, Maharashtra and Delhi. Most political experts believe that Congress has been given too many seats by JD(U) and RJD, perhaps in their eagerness to firm up the alliance. Make no mistake, BJP will be contesting most of these 40 seats and will be hoping for a strike rate of around 90%. If it can, it will definitely be a shot in the arm for its ultimate goal of reaching the halfway mark.
Relative stability of NDA and presence of PM Modi
According to Amit Shah, Modi will be campaigning not only for BJP but also for the other NDA allies. Modi will aggressively campaign, specifically highlighting the development grant that was announced for Bihar in the run-up to the elections. The relatively weaker parties like Upendra Kusjwaha's RLSP and Manjhi's HAM will also benefit from Narendra Modi's popularity.
While LJP expressed 'shock' at being just been provided 40 seats, it has quickly clarified that it has no plans to quit NDA and will try to oust the incumbent government. It plainly shows their very relative bargaining power confined much to making mere symbolic protests.
On the other side, though, the Mahagatbandhan is being wounded with many cuts with SP now out of the alliance and simmering tension between the RJD and JD(U). Whether Nitish and Lalu will be able to match Modi's charisma and bring home votes is their big Bihar challenge.
Caveats: All the allies of BJP are relatively small and currently have no representatives in the Bihar Assembly. The underlying hope of the saffron unit is that they will get a leg-up with allying with BJP. But these parties also have to individually punch above their weight, otherwise this initial advantage may soon get nullified, especially if the Mahagatbandhan can get their candidate selection correct.
All in all, we are set for a riveting election that may chart the course of Indian polity for the next one year.
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