Trump or Hillary? The new US govt's relationship with China, Russia could affect India

As the world looks on, the United States is set to choose their leader for the next four years. Analysts are watching the election closely to understand what effect a Republican or Democratic win could have on the India. Of particular importance will be US' relationship with Russia and China, two countries both the candidates have been critical about during the campaign. Experts weigh in how the relationship US chooses to maintain with either country could have ramifications for India.

China

Trump has blamed the country for "nearly half of our entire trade deficit". “Look at what China is doing to our country,” said Trump in his opening statement at the first presidential debate. “They are using our country as a piggy bank to rebuild China.” Trump has called the China a currency manipulator and vowed to declare it as one when he wins.

On the other hand, Clinton has an even longer history of criticising China, having called out its family planning policy, human rights record since 1996 and attacked it for clamp down on internet freedoms. China, in turn, has not looked at the Democratic candidate with favour. At the end of her tenure as Secretary of State, the state-run China Daily wrote, "Clinton always spoke with a unipolar voice and never appeared interested in the answers she got.”

Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan, Head of the Nuclear and Space Policy Initiative at the Observer Research Foundation (ORF) believes a Hillary presidency would in a sense a continuation of the Bill Clinton presidency we saw in the 90s. “If it's going to be a Hillary presidency there will be somewhat more sympathetic focus towards China, particularly given the economic interdependence,” she says.

Head of Neighbourhood Regional Studies Initiative, ORF, Ashok Malik is of the opinion that a Trump presidency would show less commitment to the Obama administration’s Asia ‘pivot’ and to extending American resources on a trade or military partnership in Asia. “He's not protectionist, at least that's his position and he represents the position in American domestic politics that does not want to spend a lot of money on military engagement abroad,” he says. For Malik, opinion polls coming from America, reflect the mood among the Trump voters, which is very hostile to China. “If this hostility is to be translated into action then it becomes obvious to extend some commitment to Asian allies of America, who have concerns about China,” he says.

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Trans-Pacific Partnership 

Neelam Deo, former Ambassador to the US and director of Gateway House, a policy think-tank based in Mumbai, feels Trump’s position of putting a 45% tariff on import from China, an economic power, will have an impact on the whole world. “China is now the largest trading power in the world. It’s not the biggest economy but it is the largest trading power, that would have an impact on everybody. Since the United States is one of the biggest importers from China, the Chinese industry will be deeply impacted. So that would certainly have an impact on India as well,” she says.

Both the candidates’ decision to withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership is in India’s interest. The TPP was negotiated to exclude China and to prevent it from being the dominant economic player in the Trans-Pacific part of Asia. Deo explains, “By not signing that agreement, they are certainly making countries like Japan or South Korea very nervous— especially Japan because it actually had made a lot of concessions so that this agreement could be signed.” While the TPP does not affect India, which is not a signatory to the agreement, it would be in our interest to revive the WTO and get it a little more traction rather than mega trade and bilateral agreements which exclude India, feels Deo.

South China Sea

With over 60 points of contact for official engagement between the US and China, Strategic Analyst Shamshad A Khan doesn’t see this engagement being downsized by either candidate. “Cooperation between the US and China will continue wherever their interests converge,” says Khan, adding, “Only one area may witness a confrontation between the two; Freedom of Navigation in the South China Sea.” 

Fifty percent of India’s trade passes through the busy waterway. While, so far, India has supported freedom of navigation and called for peaceful resolution of the SCS dispute, a recent report has suggested India may change its position in response to China blocking its entry to the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group. “If Trump becomes winner—the Republicans are critical of Obama administration's benign approach to challenge China in this area—they would try to enforce the Freedom of Navigation issue more aggressively leading to escalation of tensions,” says Khan.

Russia

Russia has been a particularly painful thorn in the US’ side this election with allegations of influencing the polls being levelled against it. Trump has been accused of close ties with Russia, which he has denied, but has praised Putin’s brand of leadership and said he would want a close relationship with the Russian leader. While Clinton has been highly critical of Russia’s alleged involvement in the election, she has also said the US would need to work with Russia on issues of common interest while limiting its transgressions in Ukraine, and in the Middle East, where it is coming up as a power. “I think it’s important too that the United States make it very clear to Putin that it’s not acceptable for him to be in Syria creating more chaos, bombing people on behalf of Assad, and we can’t do that if we don’t take more of a leadership position, which is what I’m advocating,” she said at the Democratic debate in October 2015. 

While India is not deeply affected by conflict in Europe, a better US-Russia relationship will also be better for hotspots like Syria. Obama's successor will have to deal with the war in Syria after the US-Russian sponsored ceasefire collapsed and was followed by renewed violence. 

MEA

A good US-Russia relationship is in India’s interest, says Deo. “Trump’s position that he will cooperate with Russia to fight ISIS terrorism seems to be a perfectly acceptable position, including from the Indian point of view. What Hillary Clinton does is to take the kind of European position of hostility towards Russia because of its annexation Crimea. In Syria, the two (US, Russia) could work together for a resolution, it would be very important for combating terrorism globally. It would likely make the US administration take a stronger position on Afghanistan and Pakistan emanating terrorism,” explains Deo.

Says Malik, “The Democrats under President Obama have taken a tough position on Russia. If Clinton is elected, the China-Russia alliance will become stronger because she will take a hardline position on Russia. If Trump comes to power, if he can work with Russia, then perhaps he can create space for America to a degree to disentangle Russia from China, that would actually be an appealing prospect to some in America.”

Concerns

For Malik, Trump represents a position in the West which is turning its back on the liberal trading order and greater international trade and globalisation. “The liberal trading order and globalisation has helped China and India a lot. India wouldn't want that order to be rejected by countries like America” he says.

Deo says, “Whatever position an American administration takes vis a vis China is of great interest to India. Given that our own relationship with China is somewhat troubled and how quickly China has established itself in our neighbourhood and in South East Asia and in Africa, all areas where India would like to have constructive relations with those countries.” As a rapidly growing economic power, America’s positions on trade and global negotiations, on IMF and on the World Bank are all of interest to India, she concludes.