Acid test of Jivabhai's popularity

The Congress hopes to cash in on sitting MP Jivabhai Patel’s popularity during the coming Lok Sabha polls. This was a major reason for the party fielding him again from this seat. However, the going may not be easy for him, as delimitation has upset the Congress’s calculations in this constituency.

With Kalol assembly segment being added to the Gandhinagar Lok Sabha seat, the Congress MP is estimated to have lost nearly 10,000 votes (the party’s lead over its nearest rival in the 2007 assembly election). Moreover, with the inclusion of Unjha - a BJP stronghold - in Mehsana constituency, the BJP has clearly gained nearly 30,000 votes (its victory margin, again in 2007 poll).  This combined figure of 40,000 votes will be a matter of concern for the Congress as it may prove crucial.

The constituency has 13.87 lakh voters, and is dominated by the Patel community (4.21 lakh voters). Other major communities in this seat are: Thakors (2.53 lakh), OBCs (2.60 lakh), Dalits (2.57 lakh), Muslims (63,500), Brahmins (47,900) and Rajputs (47,300). Tribals, banias, Sindhis and non-Gujaratis together account for 35,000 votes.

Taking into account the caste equations and the fact that six of the seven assembly segments of the constituency are held by the BJP, the party has announced Jayshree Patel, president of Gujarat State Women’s Commission, as its candidate even though she is not well-known even among party workers.

BJP workers feel that this seat can very well be pocketed by the party despite Jivabhai’s popularity. Apart from the delimitation bonus, the BJP also hopes to successfully woo women voters as it has fielded a female candidate. Incidentally, Mehsana district has one of the most skewed male-female ratio in Gujarat. The constituency has about 6.86 lakh female voters and 7 lakh male voters. And, much to the party’s relief, Jayshree Patel’s candidature hasn’t caused any heartburn in the party.

On the other hand, Jivabhai Patel is very popular in the constituency as he enjoys the image of a person who can get work done for his constituents. BJP leaders claim that his popularity rests on the fact that Jivabhai ‘shamelessly’ takes credit for the work that was initiated or completed by the BJP.

According to them, Jivabhai keeps himself abreast of various development works (often initiated by the BJP) going on in the constituency. Once a work nears completion, Jivabhai propagates it as the fruit of his own hard work. Whatever be the truth, the development works carried out in the constituency during his tenure as an MP will be the main plank on which Jivabhai will woo voters.

Another factor that may work in his favour is that he is said to have been instrumental in bringing about a change in the Centre’s norms in dealing with Indians who are deported after being caught for illegally entering the US or other countries. Earlier, deported Indians had to face police interrogation and even imprisonment in jail. Jivabhai claims to have lobbied with the Centre to bring about a change in the rule, following which such illegal emigrants will not have to face jail during interrogation. As a large number of people from Mehsana constituency move to the US and other European countries, often illegally, this change in norms may endear Jivabhai to the voters.

Thus, Mehsana is set for an interesting ballot bout.