Alliances & dalliances in Maharashtra

The problems that all.iance partners appear to be having in the run-up to the Lok Sabha elections is the outcome of the psychological war declared by the regional players - Nationalist Congress Party and the Shiv Sena - against the national parties Congress and Bharatiya Janata Party respectively.

As of now, the Congress is standing firm, ignoring NCP president Sharad Pawar’s hints of breaking the existing alliance and tying up with the Shiv Sena.

Nevertheless, a worried Sonia Gandhi ensured the communication lines stayed open: she called up Pawar, the union agriculture minister, and requested him to impart lessons on agriculture to her son Rahul during the latter’s day-long visit to Pune.

Pawar flew from Mumbai to Pune to spend time with the Gandhi scion, while deputy chief minister Chhagan Bhujbal of the NCP invited Congress leaders to his official residence at Ramtek in south Mumbai for dinner a few days ago.

Despite Pawar’s bravado, it would appear that he is in a more vulnerable spot. On the one hand, he harbours ambitions of becoming prime minister, backed by the Third Front, a cluster of non-Congress, non-BJP parties. On the other hand, he is keen to establish his successors in the state and can’t let the NCP lose ground in the state.

What has upset Pawar gameplan is the ideologically driven left parties’ categorical rejection of the Shiv Sena within the Third Front under any circumstances. As a seasoned political observer points out, “Pawar politics is founded on pragmatism. He doesn’t like to become the prisoner of principles.”

The Congress-NCP government has been ruling Maharashtra since 1999. For the 2009 polls, the Congress is refusing to budge from its claim for 27 of the state’s 48 Lok Sabha seats, while Pawar wants an equal split.

Moreover, the NCP also wants seats across India. “We are seeking 16 seats across the country and 24 seats in Maharashtra. It is a realistic demand,” said Pawar.

Union civil aviation minister Praful Patel of the NCP said some give and take between the Congress and the NCP could see the existing hurdles removed.

Pramod Mahajan is missed more than ever, in these times of strains in the 22-year-old marriage between his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Shiv Sena. He was credited with single-handedly maintaining and nourishing the relationship, by assuaging the ego of Sena chief Bal Thackeray.

With Mahajan no more — and a frail Thackeray not in the thick of things — the marriage never seemed so stretched in the last 22 years as it is now.

The gap was first recognised way back in 2006, during the run-up to the assembly by-election in Chimur. Sena was interested in contesting the seat but BJP forwarded its claim over the seat and made it a prestige issue. Finally, BJP contested from Chimur but it had to face a huge defeat. The seeds of distrust then has now grown into a full-blown tree.

BJP state leadership has become aggressive and now wants equal status in the alliance. They do not like Sena executive chief Uddhav Thackeray’s policy to contact BJP stalwart LK Advani over every minute issue regarding the alliance. On the other side, Sena leaders say that Uddhav is the chief of the party so he will obviously talk to his counterpart in the BJP.

If the alliance breaks, Sena will have an option to go with Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and BJP may be forced to enter into an alliance with the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS).

Tie up with NCP is expected to benefit the Sena. On the contrary, BJP leaders say that they are ready to sit in the opposition for another five years. They claim that BJP cannot grow in the state unless it parts ways with Sena.

An independent political observer said, “Sena and BJP both have their own voters. But in the last 20 years, a large vote bank has been developed in the name of the Sena-BJP alliance. If the alliance does not take place, they could vote for parties other than Sena and BJP. It will adversely effect both the parties.”