PPP holds edge as Pak heads for polls

Even if the elections are rigged, Bhutto’s PPP and Nawaz Sharif’s PML-N are expected to garner a two-thirds majority

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s 12th general elections, being held on Feb 18, are likely to turn out to be a referendum against the Musharraf regime. The overall election scenario tends to give the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) an overwhelming edge over its major rival, the Musharraf-backed Pakistan Muslim League (Q) or PML-Q, at the national level, provided the elections are allowed to be held in a free and fair atmosphere.

However, those closely monitoring the ongoing electioneering believe that even if the elections are selectively rigged by the establishment in favour of the PML-Q, a comfortable majority cannot be taken away from the two mainstream opposition parties — the Asif Zardari-led PPP and the Nawaz Sharif-led Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N), enabling them to garner a two-thirds majority in the next parliament. Such a situation would eventually lead to an ugly confrontation between the parliament and the president — with the latter facing the threat of impeachment and the former risking dissolution.

Therefore, in such a do a die situation for Musharraf, the opposition parties’ fear massive rigging in the general elections in favour of the PML-Q and its allied parties including the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) and the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA). The unearthing of a recording of the Pakistani attorney general’s telephonic conversation by the Human Rights Watch has already given broad hints that the elections could be massively rigged. In such an eventuality massive agitation would be an obvious choice for the PPP and PML-N, which would be joined by the boycotting APDM. 

The PML-Q is overburdened by the incumbency factor, except where the major challengers have opted out of the contest, such as in the Balochistan province. Punjab has a large anti-PPP vote but the good news for the Bhutto party is that it is going to get divided between PML-N and PMLQ, thus benefiting the PPP. Now as the traditional Muslim League votes are divided into two factions, and if the PPP votes remain at its historical average of 38-40, and the PML-N wins 25-30 per cent of the vote, the PPP, with a huge margin of 13-15 per cent, is expected to sweep almost all those seats in Punjab where the PML-Q and the PML-N are likely to divide their 38-49 per cent combined votes.

Wherever a PML-Q or PML-N candidate stands third with 15,000-25,000 votes, the PPP candidate will have an easy win. A 5-10 per cent swing in voting patterns in Punjab can sweep the polls from one end to the other in terms of seats.

According to those closely watching the general elections, other factors going in favour of the PPP include full mobilisation of the party’s voters in its traditional constituencies, a sympathy wave for the PPP due to Ms Bhutto’s assassination, the general public perception about the victor of the PPP victory and last but not the least the tilt of the women towards the Bhutto party. In Sindh, estimates show the PPP is most likely to sweep all rural seats (41), except three or five, thus enabling it to form the next government. On the other hand, the PML-Q is expected to be wiped out as the Altaf-led MQM may succeed in retaining its seats, even if not all of them.

As far as Balochistan is concerned, the decision by the nationalists to boycott the elections has given a walkover to the PML-Q sardars in the Baloch areas. The Balochistan parties, which are staying away from the Feb 18 parliamentary polls, represent both main communities — Baloch and Pashtoons. Therefore, the PML-Q is likely to clinch more National Assembly seats from the province as against its tally of the 2002 elections.

The greatest upset is being staged in the NWFP, where, after the division in the MMA, the only religious party contesting the polls — the Fazalur Rehman-led Jamiat Ulema-e-Islami -- is going to be routed. Election estimates show that out of 35 National Assembly seats, the JUI, which is contesting from the platform of the MMA, may not even win one-third. Interestingly, the PPP has emerged as the main contestant against the JUI and the ANP. It seems that the PPP and ANP will emerge as the two major parties in NWFP, dividing two-thirds of the seats among them.

With the sharp fall in the Taliban’s support and the incumbency factor going against the JUI, the liberal PPP and the nationalist ANP are most likely to dominate the election scene in the most troubled province.