Saffron rules, almost

Cong, NCP split votes to return Sena-BJP to BMC

MUMBAI: The Shiv Sena-BJP combine is set to retain power in the BMC, extending its hold on the civic body for the third consecutive term. The alliance has a combined tally of 111 seats in a House of 227, while the Congress is far behind with 71.

Of nine independents who have been elected, three are Sena rebels and one is a BJP rebel, and all four are set to rejoin their parent parties. The alliance will then cross the victory threshold of 114.

The alliance also maintained its dominance in neighbouring Thane, and wrested control of Ulhasnagar and Nagpur.

The inability of the Congress and the NCP, which are ruling the state together, to forge an alliance in the polls impaired their performance, most notably in Mumbai, Thane, Ulhasnagar, and Nagpur. The two parties managed to retain power in Akola where they contested as allies.

While the Congress kept its hold on the Solapur civic body, the NCP preserved its power in Pimpri-Chinchwad with a landslide win. The BJP, by itself, took the Nagpur Municipal Corporation from the Congress, winning by a big margin.

In the end, the Congress and the NCP cut themselves up with the sabres they were rattling at each other before the elections. In the melee, the Shiv Sena-BJP alliance, which had its back to the wall, managed to retain its hold on the BMC, the country’s richest civic body. That the NCP split Congress votes facilitated victory for the saffron alliance.

Unable to come to terms with their self-engineered downfall, Congress leaders were stunned into silence. The Mumbai Regional Congress Committee headquarters at Azad Maidan was deserted, as was the NCP office. As 45 days of fierce squabbling ended, the feeling prevailing on both sides was that Mumbai represented a classic example of misplaced calculations and overconfidence.

“If the Congress and the NCP had forged an alliance, they would have averted the split in secular votes,” Chief Minister Vilasrao Deshmukh said, “and the march of the Shiv Sena-BJP combine could have been arrested.”

NCP leader Chhagan Bhujbal, however, blamed the Congress for scuttling the possibility of a coalition. “If the Congress had shown flexibility on Rajhans Singh’s seat during the talks, we could have stopped the saffron forces coming to power in Mumbai,” the PWD minister said.

The total vote polled by the Congress (27 per cent) and NCP (12.2 per cent) constitutes a larger figure than that garnered by the Sena-BJP combine (32.5 per cent.) Congress and NCP leaders now admit that if they had contested as allies with a seat-sharing formula — 162 for the Congress and 65 for the NCP — they would have won at least 40 more seats across Mumbai.

The alliance would have worked better in Mumbai North East (12 seats), Mumbai South (three seats), Mumbai North West (eight seats), Mumbai North (10 seats) and Mumbai South Central (seven seats).

MRCC chief Gurudas Kamat, the man in charge of the Congress campaign, who had a loud and open falling out with the NCP’s RR Patil, refused to answer calls.

The Congress could not keep its traditional vote banks - minorities (16 per cent) and Dalits (10 per cent) - intact. Moreover, its overdependence on Narayan Rane to bring in the Marathi votes turned out to be a perilous strategy.

Of the 227 BMC seats, the Congress had allotted as many as 33 to Rane’s supporters, and 31 of them lost. “Unlike Bal Thackeray, who encashed the 26 per cent ‘Marathi Manus’ vote, Rane failed to keep the sons of the soil committed to the Congress,” one of Rane’s aides said. Indeed, 7 per cent Konkanis loyal to Rane switched over to the Sena in the civic elections.

The Congress believed the division of saffron votes caused by the MNS’s entry would enable them to cover the split in secular votes produced by the Third Front, Samajwadi Party, and NCP. But Raj Thackeray’s impact was limited in Mumbai.

Also, the Congress reckoned without the anger of the minorities. Muslims were disillusioned with the government after last year’s bomb blasts triggered a crackdown on the community. “The home department’s excesses against the minorities and Dalits went against the Congress,” said Hussain Dalwai, party spokesperson. “It is high time the party demands the home ministry from the NCP.” The SP also weaned away a sizeable chunk of Muslim votes from the Congress.

As for the Dalits, the Khairlanji killings had galvanised the community to express its outrage on the streets. Although voters’ concerns may have been assuaged in small measure by Sonia Gandhi’s public rally and the PM-commissioned Sachar Committee report, party workers in the state conveyed little reassurance at the grassroots.

The MRCC failed to mollify MPs such as Govinda and Priya Dutt, who were sulking because their candidates were denied tickets. Nor did the party deploy North Indian leaders such as Kripa Shankar Singh, Naseem Khan, and Sanjay Nirupam for active campaigning. That such notable figures were not fully integrated in the canvassing effort enfeebled the Congress’s performance further.

The Congress suffered a reversal in Pune as well where the NCP put up an impressive show. Some observers say the result does not augur well for the city’s Congress strongman, Suresh Kalmadi.

Closer home, in Ulhasnagar, the reign of the RPI-NCP combine and of Suresh ‘Pappu’ Kalani ended. The Sena-BJP alliance, with support from independents and others, is likely to grab power. The saffron alliance’s chances of coming to power are dependent on the local Ganga Jal Aghadi, which has bagged 14 seats.

The BJP’s decision to contest on its own in Solapur hurt the saffron group and the Congress managed to retain power. In Akola, the impressive performance of the Prakash Ambedkar-led BBM and other independents dented the BJP-Sena combine’s hopes of retaining power. It is a hung House in Amravati, and the Congress will have to join hands with the NCP to stake claim to power.

Also read: Mumbai deserves more. | Read report