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Gross NPAs may rise 5.9% in worst case scenario

Sectoral data as of December 2014 indicates that among the broad sectors, industry continued to record the highest stressed advances ratio at 17.9% followed by services at 7.5%. The retail sector recorded the lowest stressed advances ratio at 2%. Private sector banks had the highest share of retail loans in their total loans at 27.7% as against 17.1% for the public sector peers.

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The gross non-performing advances (GNPAs) of SCBs as percentage of gross advances increased to 4.6% from 4.5% between September 2014 and March 2015. The restructured standard advances during the period also increased, pushing up the SCBs' stressed advances to 11.1% of the total advances from 10.7 %. PSBs recorded the highest level of stressed assets at 13.5% of total advances as of March 2015, compared with 4.6% in the case of private sector banks.

Sectoral data as of December 2014 indicates that among the broad sectors, industry continued to record the highest stressed advances ratio at 17.9% followed by services at 7.5%. The retail sector recorded the lowest stressed advances ratio at 2%. Private sector banks had the highest share of retail loans in their total loans at 27.7% as against 17.1% for the public sector peers.

Five sub-sectors such as mining, iron & steel, textiles, infrastructure and aviation, which together constituted 24.8% of the total advances of banks, had a much larger share of 51.1% in the total stressed advances. Among these five sectors, infrastructure and iron & steel had a significant contribution in total stressed advances accounting for nearly 40% of the total. Among banks, PSBs, which had the maximum exposure to these five sub-sectors, had the highest stressed advances.

The macro stress test of credit risk suggests that under the baseline scenario, the GNPA ratio may increase to 4.8% by September 2015 (same as recorded in December 2014) from 4.6% as of March 2015, which could subsequently improve to 4.7% by March 2016. However, if the macroeconomic conditions deteriorate, the GNPA ratio may increase further and it could rise to around 5.9% by March 2016 under a severe stress scenario.

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