Behind dud test row is nuke deal

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on Saturday threw his hat behind the former NDA government’s 1998 nuclear tests by saying that APJ Abdul Kalam must have the last word on the controversy over dud tests.

Kalam, the then director general of the DRDO has refuted the claims of his junior K Santhanam that more tests were needed to perfect the hydrogen bomb. “A wrong impression has been given by some scientists which is needless. Kalam has clarified that the tests were successful,” the PM said on Saturday.

It is but natural for the Indian political establishment to not rake up the issue of the alleged dud test. This is why both Kalam and former national security adviser Brajesh Mishra have rubbished Santhanam’s claims of a flawed hydrogen test. K Santhanam is one of several scientists who believes that the doctrine of “minimum credible deterrence" adopted by both the Vajpayee and the Manmohan Singh government is unacceptable, till the Hydrogen bomb is perfected. This is because China has the H-bomb and according to these strategic analysts India should continue the bomb-making program until a perfect test is concluded.

The strategic community is divided through the middle on this issue. This was apparent even in 1998 soon after Pokhran II. Independent international analysts had at that time raised doubts about India’s thermo-nuclear tests.

But on Saturday PK Iyengar, former chief of the atomic energy commission backed Santhanam and asked as to why Kalam’s words should be taken seriously considering he is only a missiles expert. “What is so sacrosanct about Abdul Kalam? Even Einstein made mistakes. Before the scientists on the site called New Delhi to confirm the tests, they should have checked the yield of the thermo-nuclear bomb with the seismic centre in London, with which India has a co-operation agreement. Dr Kalam did not check and doubts about the yield were there after the tests.’’

Iyengar said that though he had retired by then, he made it a point to meet Brajesh Mishra and talk about his concerns. “I told him if you are looking for a deterrent against Pakistan we have it, but if you want a deterrent against China, we don’t.’’ He claimed to have asked Brajesh Mishra to make sure that India does not sign the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) and tie its hands, because more tests were required to perfect the H-bomb. Those who want the H-bomb are now worried that the Obama administration will force India to sign the CTBT. However, the CTBT first needs to be ratified by the US Congress. Presently, the Obama administration is keen to get it ratified. Once the US ratifies it, the rest of the world will follow suit and India will find it difficult to resist signing it. In fact, privately, officials admit that the government’s position has shifted on the CTBT, because it doesn’t feel the need to test again.

Kalam as well as R Chidambaran, the chairman of the department of atomic energy during Pokhran II, had reported back to Brajesh Mishra that the sixth test which was scheduled need not be undertaken as the requisite data from the five previous underground blasts had yielded enough results. This is why the NDA government announced a unilateral moratorium on further tests. The scientists were confident that India could make do with computer simulations in future.

The Congress party may have been tempted to side with Santhanam, but backing him would amount to admitting that more tests are needed to perfect India’s nuclear arsenal. Another such test today would mean an end to the India-US nuclear deal because the 123 agreement clearly lays down that more underground tests would result in Washington pulling out of the agreement. More over what ever equipment purchased from the US will have to be returned. Once the US does this, other countries like France and Russia will be under pressure to follow suit.

The noise about the alleged dud tests will become more vociferous if and when the US Congress ratifies the CTBT and pressure on India mounts. So it is natural that the Congress party will not want to stoke this fire which could put an end to the nuclear deal.
However, many senior officials here believe that India with 100 or so bombs in its basement has a credible minimum deterrent and no more tests are needed. ``If you go along with a section of retired scientists, nothing will ever be enough. Now they are talking of China. Next they will say we need to compete with the US. There has to be a stop and the political establishment cannot pander to these crazy scientists,’’ an official who did not wish to be identified said.