Assam chief minister Tarun Gogoi has taken a huge gamble by refusing to have an alliance with the Assam United Democratic Front.
Assam chief minister Tarun Gogoi has taken a huge gamble by refusing to have an alliance with the Assam United Democratic Front (AUDF), a new minority political party in the state, which is likely to cut into the Congress’ traditional Muslim vote bank. The AUDF was keen but Gogoi was adamant, he wanted nothing to do with Maulan Badruddin Ajmal or his party.
Gogoi is staking his political future on this decision as he went against the assessment of senior central leaders as well as many Pradesh Congress colleagues who said a division of the minority votes will affect the chances of the party. The Congress which holds nine of the 14 Lok Sabha seat from Assam is facing an uphill task and may not be in a position to hold on to the existing numbers.
In a meeting last month in New Delhi presided over by president Sonia Gandhi and attended by party top brass including Pranab Mukherjee, Ahmed Patel, Verrappa Moily, AK Antony and Bhubenaswar Kalita, Gogoi was adamant about not aligning with Badruddin Ajmal’s UDF. He and his younger colleague Kirip Chaliah, MP from Guwahati, a known Gogoi-baiter and denied a ticket this time, had an open showdown during the meeting. The chief minister is alleged to have said that if there is an alliance he would not be responsible for delivering the state to the party.
Finally, Sonia Gandhi looked at Gogoi’s record and decided to allow him a free hand. The chief minister had won the assembly elections twice and had also delivered the panchayats to the Congress kitty. But she put a rider that Gogoi must deliver at least 9-10 members from Assam.
The chief minister took up the challenge but it is doubtful if he can deliver on his promise. The fact that the BJP has for the first time forged an electoral alliance with the the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) ensures that there is no division in the caste Hindu votes in the state makes it, even more difficult for the Congress.
Tarun Gogoi’s calculations rests on the premise that the character of the Congress has changed in the last two decades or so since the anti-foreigners agitation led by the Assam students union since 1979, made the Congress a “dirty word” in the caste Hindu society.
Congress was blamed for allowing Bangladeshi migrants into the state and giving them voting rights to protect the political dominance of the party. But much water has flowed down the Brahmaputra since then. The AGP, a party of former leaders of the agitation have been in power twice but has done nothing about sending back Bangladeshi immigrants, mainly because they now realise that in certain constituencies without Muslim votes there cannot win.
“The post-agitation generation in Assam do not have any emotional ties with the AGP. The young people want jobs, they are for development and they are with us,” say’s Himanta Biswa Sharma, a powerful minister in Gogoi’s cabinet and his right hand man.
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