Congress will have to guard against the Shiv Sena-BJP alliance exploiting the Moditva phenomenon in Maharashtra.
DNA Analysis
Congress will have to guard against the Shiv Sena-BJP alliance exploiting the Moditva phenomenon in Maharashtra
The Congress debacle in Gujarat has emboldened dissidents in the party in Maharashtra to sharpen their knives against Chief Minister Vilasrao Deshmukh. But Sonia Gandhi has to address many questions before she can think of destabilising the polity in the state.
Congress leaders admit that Revenue Minister Narayan Rane’s open attack on Deshmukh was a well-orchestrated move. But the question of a change of guard is not limited to who will be the chief minister. It will have larger political ramifications on the Congress-NCP alliance.
The Congress cannot antagonise NCP leader Sharad Pawar or party loyalists by elevating Rane to the chief minister’s post against their wishes. So, Rane is unlikely to succeed Deshmukh. The meeting between Shiv Sena leader Bal Thackeray and Pawar at Matoshree on Sunday is a warning to 10 Janpath to arrest Rane’s march. The NCP-Sena handshake is to counter the possibility of Rane floating his own party and networking with the MNS and BSP to form a third front.
A senior office-bearer of the All-India Congress Committee said, “Maharashtra is not alone to reactivate its dissident activities. Other states will follow suit, including Karnataka. The party leadership will have to take corrective measures to strike a balance of power among factions in the state Congress and sew up political alliances.”
There are two views within the Congress. Deshmukh can’t be punished for the Gujarat failure. It was a collective responsibility where top leaders, including Sonia Gandhi and Manmohan Singh, were involved. Congress spokesman Sanjay Nirupam said, “Why blame an individual? Each state has its own dynamics.”
The Congress admits it will have to guard against the Sena-BJP exploiting the Moditva phenomenon in Maharashtra. The saffron alliance won in 1995 after the communal riots of 1992-93. BJP general secretary Vinod Tawde said, “Modi will be our mascot in the 2009 state election.” With Bal Thackeray ageing, the saffron brigade may switch to Modi to stoke Hindutva.
There are two schools of thought in the AICC. One believes Deshmukh is the party’s Maratha mascot to counter the NCP in Marathwada and parts of Western Maharashtra. It believes Pawar and Deshmukh will strike a good equation if they have to take on the Sena-BJP.
The other school believes the next CM should be a dalit such as Sushilkumar Shinde or AICC general secretary Mukul Wasnik, who could arrest the march of the BSP by consolidating the dalits, Muslims, and OBCs.
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