Monsoon 16% in deficit in June: Met office

India's vital monsoon rains were 16% below normal in June, the second-lowest since 1995, delaying soybean planting in the world's top edible oils importer and ruling out early lifting of curbs on grain exports.                                           

The shaky start of the rainy season also heightens concerns of food inflation that soared to nearly 17% last month, having risen steadily after last year's June-September monsoon delivered the weakest rains in nearly four decades.                                           
 

June rainfall was disappointing but still 60% higher than the same month a year ago, data from the India meteorological department (IMD) showed.                                           

IMD said adverse local weather conditions had weakened the monsoon winds that reached the country's southern coast on schedule but have not advanced beyond eastern and central India since June 18.                                           

Still, the weather office expects a quick revival of rains and total rainfall in the four-month season would still be normal as forecast earlier, Ajit Tyagi, director general of the IMD told Reuters.      

"I stand by the forecast of normal monsoon. We are hopeful of a revival by July 2 or July 3," he said.                                           

The poor start of monsoon rains, the main source of water for 60% of Indian farms, has slowed down planting of soybeans in central India, while farmers in the grainbowl states of Punjab and Haryana may delay rice planting if rains do not revive quickly, traders and officials said.                                           

Sluggish monsoon would also discourage the government from lifting export curbs on wheat and rice although the country has massive stockpiles, analysts say.                                            

"Curbs on grain exports would continue until the monsoon ends," said S Raghuraman, an analyst with the Delhi-based consulting firm Agriwatch.                                           

India's food prices were up an annual 16.90% in mid-June, while the overall inflation rate has risen above 10%, maintaining pressure on the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to tighten monetary policy.                                           

India's inflation, which has already triggered several protests in the country, may rise further as the government last week lifted controls on petrol prices and raised the state-set rates of diesel, cooking gas and kerosene.