The south-west monsoon, that powers the trillion-dollar economy of the country, had entered a weak phase on June 18 after covering half of the nation but there are already signs of revival.
The country is expected to get excess rainfall this monsoon than earlier predicted with September tipped to be the wettest month, the Met office said today.
The south-west monsoon, that powers the trillion-dollar economy of the country, had entered a weak phase on June 18 after covering half of the nation but there are already signs of revival in parts of Madhya Pradesh, Bihar and Jharkhand.
In an update to its April forecast, the India meteorological department (IMD) revised its predictions and pegged the quantum of rains for the country for June-September period at 102% of the Long Period Average (LPA).
The LPA is the average rainfall received across the country over a 50-year period. The LPA has been calculated at 89 cm. In April, the IMD had said the country would receive 98% rains of the LPA.
"Monsoon revival is already taking place and we expect good rains (98%) in July and August (101%)," IMD director general Ajit Tyagi told reporters here.
A good rainfall in July is very crucial for agriculture as sowing for the kharif crop is at its peak during this period. Over 235 million farmers across the country have been expecting a normal monsoon season in the backdrop of severe drought last year.
With the weather office sticking to its forecast of a normal monsoon, sowing for kharif crops has been picking up momentum across the country.
Agriculture ministry said paddy has been sown in 24.12 lakh hectares (ha) as of today as compared to 10.97 lakh ha a week ago. Oilseeds have been sown in 11.46 lakh ha.
The country's rice output declined to 89.31 million tonnes last year from the previous year's record 99.18 million tonnes due to a severe drought.
Monsoon had set in over Kerala on May 31, a day ahead of schedule but had a sputtered advance due to various factors, including the influence of cyclone Phet.
India had received 97.4 mm rainfall during the period between June 1 and 23, 11% less rains than normal. However, weather scientists have said there is no need for alarm as there is still hope for improvement in rainfall across the country.
Tyagi said September could be the wettest month this monsoon season as La Nina conditions are developing in the Central Pacific ocean. The cooling of the Central Pacific, called as La Nina, is believed to be one of the factors that brings rains to the Indian subcontinent.
As per normal dates of onset, the monsoon is nearly 10-12 days behind schedule over the Gangetic plains of north India.
The normal date on which the monsoon makes entry into Uttar Pradesh is June 14. As on date monsoon has not entered into UP and has advanced only upto western parts of Bihar.
Monsoon originates from southern hemisphere from a high pressure area called "Mascarene High" situated near Mascarene islands in South Indian Ocean.
Winds from this High flows towards Somalia coast and then turn towards Indian peninsula to form a low-level jet in the form of strong westerly to southwesterly winds, weather scientists said.
It is this mechanism which decides the strength of monsoon flow. Apparently, the out flow of winds from Mascarene High got weakened from June 18 onwards which led to weakening of flow over Arabian Sea and hence weakening of overall monsoon activity.
The monsoon flow got revived from 24th June. The overall monsoon flow over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal is in good shape.
The predictions suggest the flow would further intensify from July 1 onwards.
An analysis of various forecast models suggest that beginning from June 30, there may be fairly widespread rainfall activity over Bihar, Jharkhand, East UP and parts of North MP.
With this, it is expected that monsoon may cover remaining areas of Bihar and Jharkhand, parts of MP and may enter into certain areas of East UP during June 29 to July 1.
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