Anything below 1 lakh MW means India will not become a power-surplus country even in the next five years.
The power ministry has scaled down its 12th plan capacity addition target to 75,785 MW from the previously planned over 1 lakh MW. Anything below 1 lakh MW means India will not become a power-surplus country even in the next five years. What’s worse, the 12th plan target is less than the ministry’s goal for the 11th plan (78,700 MW).
A working group on power for the 12th plan submitted its report to the Planning Commission on October 31 this year.
“There is huge shortage of coal and gas in the country. We do not want to set up a target that we would miss by 50%” said an official in the power ministry and a member of the working group for the 12th plan.
For the last two years, coal mining projects with reserves of over 600 MT have been stuck in the “no-go” category, leading to reduced production from Coal India Ltd. The production of gas from Reliance Industries’ KG basin has also been on the decline. As a result, many planned gas-based projects are stalled.
Till September this year, Union power minister Sushil Kumar Shinde said that his ministry will add more than 1 Lakh MW in the 12th plan.
India aims to grow at 9% per annum in the 12th plan and its current peak demand deficit stands at 10.3% with an installed capacity of 1,82,344 MW. “For the country to become power surplus we need to add at least 1 lakh MW during the 12th plan.
We will need 2.70 lakh MW of installed capacity to be able to meet our peak electricity demand,” said an expert from the power sector.
India’s demand for power is growing between 5% and 7%. The power sector demand is calculated on the basis of peak-hour demand because at no time during the year, every power plant is fully functional. So for example, if India’s installed capacity is 1.8 lakh MW, the operational capacity at any point during the year is not more than 1.2-1.5 lakh MW during the year. So, if peak demand deficit is 10.3%, it means, at any given time during peak hours, the supply deficit stands at 10.3 %.
At the beginning of the 11th plan, the capacity addition target was set at 78,700 MW. However, after the mid-term appraisal by the Planning Commission, it was reduced to 62,374 MW. The progress on ground suggests that the government will not be able to add more than 51,000 MW by the end of the plan.
“Historically, the ministry has always missed the target and this time too it will miss it because there is no accountability for non-performance. If at the beginning of the plan, we are targeting less than our 11th plan target, we can imagine what would be the achievement at the end of the plan,” said Kuljit Singh, partner-infrastructure practice, Ernst & Young.
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