Analysts expect the Supreme Court to either seize all of the frozen wealth, or to compromise by allowing Thaksin to keep a portion of the assets.
Security forces were on alert across Bangkok on Friday to prevent possible unrest as judges began reading a verdict on whether to confiscate $2.3 billion of ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra family's assets.
Authorities say major violence is unlikely but have mobilised thousands of police and troops to pre-empt any backlash by supporters of the 60-year-old fugitive at the centre of a 5-year political crisis in Southeast Asia's second-biggest economy.
Analysts expect the Supreme Court to either seize all of the frozen wealth, or to compromise by allowing Thaksin to keep a portion of the assets.
The latter scenario is seen as more favourable for markets in the short-run as it lessens the risk of an imminent showdown in Thailand's divisive colour-coded crisis.
"The partial seizure of the assets should be what financial markets prefer because both sides can claim victory," said Prapas Tonpibulsak, chief investment officer at Ayudhya Fund Management.
Some analysts say a court verdict unfavourable to Thaksin, ousted in a 2006 coup and convicted in absentia of graft, could add weight to allegations he is the victim of a political vendetta and may spark an angry response from supporters.
Security was tight around Bangkok's Supreme Court on what has become known as "Judgment Day", with cellphone signals jammed to prevent remote-detonated bombings and judges ferried to the courthouse, some from safe houses, in bullet-proof cars.
Six-hundred police guarded the court. security agencies said thousands of riot troops were on standby in case of unrest.
BOURSE SUBDUED
Political uncertainty has subdued Thailand''s benchmark index in recent weeks, with many traders waiting to see what the ruling will bring.
But foreign investors were net buyers for three straight days this week, drawn to bargains in Thailand where stocks are trading at just 10.6 times forecast 2011 earnings, Asia's cheapest after Pakistan, Thomson Reuters data shows.
The pro-Thaksin "red shirt" movement, which last April forced a regional summit to be abandoned and staged demonstrations that sparked Thailand's worst street violence in 17 years, plans a mass rally in Bangkok on March 14 but says it will not protest on Friday whatever the verdict.
The delay was widely seen as a move to distance the movement from any groups that might seek to stir up trouble. A splinter pro-Thaksin group, "Red Siam", rallied close to the court on Friday, but has vowed to remain peaceful.
The "red shirts" accuse authorities of playing up the risk of unrest. Security agencies have said they are most concerned outside agitators, or a "third hand", will trigger violence.
Prosecutors say Thaksin and his former wife, Potjaman na Pombejra, concealed ownership of shares in telecoms firm Shin Corp while he was in office from 2001 to 2006, and that he abused power by tailoring policies to benefit the company.
Thaksin and his family deny the charges. Judges began reading the verdict at 1:30 pm (0630 GMT) and it could take several hours before a decision on the assets is announced, possibly after the stock market closes ahead of a three-day break that would allow investors time to weigh up any consequences of the ruling.
At 0740 GMT, the stock market was up 0.39%, while the baht was slightly weaker. The twice-elected Thaksin is believed to be in Dubai and says he will fight any seizure of the assets from exile.
Although the verdict will turn a new page in an intractable political crisis that has alarmed many investors, few believe it will provide any hope of a long-term resolution.
"It's unclear what Thaksin will do if the assets are frozen, he might decide to play dirty, but it's unlikely this verdict will solve anything," said Jacob Ramsay, an analyst at Control Risks in Singapore.
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