A US-led plan to build a missile defence shield against Iran will test Turkey's conflicting allegiances, forcing it to find a way to satisfy NATO allies without alienating new partners to the East.
A US-led plan to build a missile defence shield against Iran will test Turkey's conflicting allegiances, forcing it to find a way to satisfy NATO allies without alienating new partners to the East.
Frustrated at "waiting at the gates" of the European Union, and out of step with long time ally the United States on some key foreign policy issues -- notably regarding Iran -- Muslim Turkey has charted an increasingly independent course.
NATO member states will discuss at a summit in Lisbon on November 19-20 whether to build the shield, aimed at countering ballistic threats from the Middle East, in particular Iran.
Turkey, the only Muslim state in NATO, doesn't want any NATO agreement on the shield to identify as potential enemies either fellow Muslim states Iran and Syria, or Russia. Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan also wants the shield to cover all Turkish territory and seeks guarantees command would stay within NATO.
Though Turkey is committed to NATO missions such as Afghanistan, it is no longer the compliant partner that it was during the Cold War and cannot be taken for granted by the West.
"Five years ago Ankara's choice would have been predictable," said Semih Idiz, a Turkish foreign policy analyst.
"It no longer is so and this carries the seeds of another crisis with the US and the EU along the ideological divide."
Turkey seeks stable relations with close neighbours which in past decades have proved troublesome. It has an $11 billion trade with major gas supplier Iran, has become a friend of Syria, and it recently signed a "strategic partnership" with traditional foe Russia.
Turkey's transformation from a virtual bankrupt shackled by military coups into a stable democracy with one of the world's fastest growing economies has imbued it with confidence.
Erdogan, whose core constituency lies among religious Turks knows his assertiveness goes down well with voters who have as little trust in Washington as an average Egyptian or Pakistani.
Idiz says Erdogan, who has called Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad a good friend, has become a "wild card" -- a valued ally of the West whose maverick streak can prove awkward.
Turkey's estrangement from Israel added to complications.
Strategically, Turkey straddles energy corridors to Central Asia and the Middle East, with Iraq, Iran, Syria, and the volatile South Caucasus states on its eastern borders, Russia to the north, and the Balkans to the southwest.
The United States sees Turkey, a moderate Muslim state with a secular constitution and strengthening democracy, as a bulwark of stability in the conflict-ridden Eurasian region.
Turkey's decision to vote against UN sanctions against Iran over its nuclear programme irked the United States.
Last month, treasury undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence Stuart Levey prodded Turkey to enforce international sanctions against Iran more strictly.
"There is a perception among US strategists that Turkey is not being helpful and a 'yes' can soothe those concerns," said Ian Lesser from the German Marshall Fund, adding he expect Turkey to come on board given its proximity to trouble spots.
Assistant aecretary of defence Alexander Vershbow said bluntly that Ankara should "demonstrate publicly" that bilateral and NATO alliance relations were moving forward.
Friction with the West will not disappear.
Frustrated by a stalled EU bid, Turkish leaders have hinted that Turkey could go its own way.
During a keynote speech in London this week, President Abdullah Gul said the EU needed Turkey if it wanted to remain a global player as world power shifted eastward. He spoke of the possibility of Turkey one day joining the emerging BRIC countries -- Brazil, Russia, India and China.
"This overconfident message that Turkey does not need the EU so much as the EU needs Turkey is getting louder and louder among the ruling circles," Cengiz Aktar, a Turkish analyst said.
"The BRIC + T idea is not new, but what does it mean? Turkey still needs EU norms and values for its modernisation process."
Hugh Pope, TurkeyCyprus Project director for the International Crisis Group, said that despite recent strains, the fundamentals of Turkey's Western alliances have not changed.
Where some see Ankara's "dangerous embrace" of Tehran, Pope says Sunni Turkey and Shi'ite Iran would appear natural rivals.
Moreover, Pope said Turkey and the United States share the goal of preventing Iran acquiring nuclear weapons.
"It is the ability of Turkey to be a respected partner of both the EU and the United States that truly distinguishes it from other states in West Asia and underpins the prosperity and legitimacy that the rest of the region so envies," Pope wrote in a piece titled "Turkey: Pax Ottomana?"
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