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Federer’s still the man to beat

With 15 Grand Slam titles in bag the indomitable Swiss still chugs on with Nadal, his greatest rival, showing signs of fallibility; 2010 could be Murray’s watershed year.

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By winning the prestigious year-end ATP World Tour Finals, Nikolay Davydenko added an extra conversation starter to the wrap up of the year’s tennis. He was the unlikeliest of winners, although a solid performer and therefore a legitimate contender. The Silent Assassin, he was dubbed by the commentators.

Along the way to his victory over US Open champion Juan Martin del Potro, he lost only to defending champion Novak Djokovic and then went on to defeat Australian Open champion Rafael Nadal, French Open and Wimbledon champion Roger Federer and French Open finalist Robin Soderling. Each one of those players had been given better odds by bookies to win the title. Davydenko however hit the ground running after his first defeat and then sizzled on the courts. A new champion was born.

The year began it seemed with the end of one champion and the meteoric ascension of another. In Australia, as Federer wept after losing another massive five-set final to Nadal, there were murmurs that the king was dead…Federer was coming off a pretty bad 2008.

Yet, you write him off at your own peril, as everyone discovered. Sadly, it was Nadal who faded and by May, was ousted from Roland Garros by Soderling.

A resurgent Federer went on to win the French, the one slam that had eluded him. He won his sixth Wimbledon title, denied him by Nadal in an epic five-setter the year before. In this year’s five-setter against Andy Roddick, Federer made no such mistake.

The No.1 ranking was back and he had 15 Grand Slam titles overtaking Pete Sampras’s record of 14. He had a career slam, got married to his long-time companion Mirka and also became the father of twin girls.

When he reached the US Open final, it showed a consistency which was frightening. Federer has reached 22 Grand Slam semifinals or better, as well as 17 of the last 18 Grand Slam finals. Therefore, even losses in Basel, Paris and London have not affected his position for 2010.

It is the rest of the field which is now worth conjecture. Nadal must recoup fast and recover his lost form. Djokovic has not been able to defend his one Grand Slam (Australia 2008) or his year-ender title, though he was been a quiet achiever in the latter part of 2009.

Del Potro took time to come down from the US Open euphoria. The biggest hope of 2009 was Andy Murray and he still remains a hope for 2010. Will this be his breakthrough year?

Federer has a few advantages here — he saw out the greats of the generation before him, Pete Sampras and Andre Agassi; destroyed many of his own generation — Lleyton Hewitt and Andy Roddick — and is not allowing the new boys, Murray and Del Potro, to have a full run of the rankings.

If Nadal was his one true rival, together, they still guard the fortress. Will anyone make a successful run for it in 2010? Based on the evidence, if you’re backing an outsider, don’t hold your breath.
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