Phone call is Congress’ bid to establish pre-poll bonhomie for post-poll alliances.
A day after his spat with Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar, prime minister Manmohan Singh rang up Kumar on Tuesday to clear the air and soften him in anticipation of a possible tie-up after poll results. The prime minister’s telephone call is significant given its timing, and that it points to the fact that Nitish Kumar still figures on the Congress’ post-poll plans.
The Congress leadership has begun shortlisting potential allies and the parties outside the UPA who it can rope in after results. Various leaders are being assigned specific tasks of opening discreet lines of communication with certain parties. The parties shortlisted as possible post-poll allies include Left/Trinamool, Praja Rajyam, TRS, AUDF, BSP/SP, JD(S) and AIADMK
Meanwhile, HD Kumaraswamy, son of former PM HD Deve Gowda, met Sonia Gandhi on Tuesday night. The meeting, sources said, point to a possible alliance between the two parties.
Unlike the BJP, the Congress has less elbowroom to manoeuvre because in most states, it is either the main party or has an ally in a regional party. The party’s post-poll strategy hinges entirely on whether it emerges as the single largest party or not and also how its existing allies perform.
It is hamstrung in its search for new allies by the fact that in most states, it already has alliances in place. It cannot reach out to new allies without the risk of losing its existing allies, as a result of which it is trying to mollify estranged allies such as Lalu and Paswan and at the same time opened back channel contacts with the BSP. “Our ability to reach out to new allies will depend on how our existing allies do.
The Congress is faced with this problem in most of the states. In West Bengal, it has a seat-sharing arrangement with the Trinamool Congress and risks losing its support if it goes with the Left. Similarly, in Tamil Nadu it is already in alliance with the DMK, but that relationship could go for a six if takes the support of the AIADMK in the post-poll scenario. There are no easy choices for the party in UP or Bihar. It has been openly wooing Nitish but cannot clinch the deal without losing the support of the RJD and the LJP.
The party is also constrained in its efforts to try and affect a post poll relationship with the BSP. It will have to wait for the results before deciding which way to go. Both Lalu and Paswan are a part of the UPA and the two have now also tied up with SP. The Congress will seek the BSP support only if the latter has more seats than the three, or else it risks losing the support of these three parties.
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