The Congress has much to gain but it also has important citadels to protect in a battle that is getting keener with every phase.
The fourth phase of polling on Thursday is a do-or-die round for the Congress. It has much to gain but it also has important citadels to protect in a battle that is getting keener with every phase.
The Congress and Bharatiya Janata Party are locked in a straight fight in 42 of 85 seats that will go to the polls that day, which means that one will gain at the other’s expense. Consequently, Thursday’s ballot is another crucial round in determining which of the two national parties will bag the crown of single largest party to get the first shot at government formation.
The pivotal state in the fourth phase is Rajasthan, where the Congress hopes to notch up an impressive increase in seats following the BJP’s defeat in last December’s assembly elections. The Congress won only four seats from this state in the 2004 Lok Sabha polls and is putting in a final burst of effort to wrest at least 10 more, all from the BJP.
But if there are gains to be had from Rajasthan, there could be losses from Delhi and Haryana, where the Congress has to protect its flanks from a resurgent BJP. The party had won six of Delhi’s seven seats and nine of Haryana’s 10 seats in 2004 with the BJP winning only one each in these states.
The troublemaker in both places is the Bahujan Samaj Party, whose candidates are putting up a strong showing and threatening to eat into traditional Congress voter blocks among Dalits and Muslims. This could tilt the election in the BJP’s favour in several seats. That the Congress is jittery is evident from the late night move on Monday to “persuade” the BSP candidate in the northeast Delhi seat, Haji Dilshad, to retire in favour of Congress nominee JP Agarwal. The BSP reacted sharply and accused the Congress of using unfair means to “shamelessly” manipulate the polls.
The BJP has concentrated its resources in select seats in Haryana and the western part of Uttar Pradesh, where it believes it can win. In both places, it is fighting in alliance with Jat leaders, Om Prakash Chautala (Haryana) and Ajit Singh (Uttar Pradesh), who are expected to pull in caste votes for the saffron party. It seems to have accepted that Rajasthan is a lost cause and, at best, it can only hope to save face by preventing a Congress whitewash.
The fourth phase is also critical for the Left, with 18 of 42 seats in West Bengal polling on Thursday. Except for Congress leader Pranab Mukerhjee’s seat, the fight is essentially between the Left and Trinamool Congress.
As the battle of the ballot enters its penultimate round, both sides are busy with intricate calculations. BJP strategists believe the Congress has fallen behind in the race after a dismal showing in Andhra Pradesh. But Congress strategists are confident the party has retained enough seats in Andhra and gained substantially in Kerala from the Left.
The fourth phase could well be the clinching round.
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