2009 is a tough election to call

Psephologist Yogendra Yadav of the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies said, “The overall voter turnout is almost the same for 2004 and 2009 as of now. This suggests that nothing has changed in five years.”

The turnout for phase one in 2004 was 60.4% and in 2009 60.2%. For phase two, it was 59% in 2004 and 55% in 2009. The latter is a provisional figure and is expected to rise by two to three percent when the final figure is posted.

For the remaining three phases, the trend is likely to continue with losses and gains cancelling out. Psephologist Yashwant Deshmukh of C-Voter said there is a distinct possibility of a photo finish as the seven-seat gap between the Congress and BJP narrows in coming rounds. One party’s loss is the other’s gain. The Congress is expected to gain in Rajasthan at the BJP’s cost. But the BJP will gain in Jharkhand and Assam at the expense of the Congress.

Two factors make the 2009 polls tough to call. One is the abundance of multi-cornered contests. The other is the inability of political leaders and psephologists to read the minds of floating voters and new voters in the 18-25 age group. A high turnout usually means these voters came out in full force and the trend could go either way, usually against the incumbent government.