The going’s good for go-it-alone Congress in Bihar

Attributed to crown prince Rahul Gandhi, the Congress decision to go it alone in Bihar seems to be paying dividends.

Having disintegrated and disappeared from the state’s political scene after the ’90s, the party is showing signs of a new life.

Local workers and leaders exude confidence and appear to be in the mood to put up a fight. “After years, Congress has shown the ability to fight like the national party it was and reposed confidence in us. Of course, the party is going to gain,” they say.

Most people and Congressmen concede the party would not gain much in terms of seats this election. “But wait till the next election, and you will see,” they say.

The Congress is expected to make a significant improvement even in the assembly election due at the end of 2010. The feeling is pervasive. Even a man from a family of BJP supporters since Jan Sangh days said, “If the Congress had done this a couple of years ago, you would have seen the difference this election. Just wait till the assembly election. It will be really interesting.”

A resurgent Congress holds out hope to different social groups. The party last ruled the state in 1989. Its decline continued apace from 1996 and it started disintegrating.

Leaders left the party and depletion of its traditional electoral base began. It was a combination of upper castes such as Brahmins and Thakurs, the minority Muslim community, some backward castes and Dalits. In general, upper-caste voters shifted from the Congress to the BJP, and Muslim, Dalit, and backward caste voters to the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Lok Janshakti Party (LJP).

A revival may bring them back to the fold. Muslims, who have no complaints with JD(U)’s Nitish Kumar, have a problem with its NDA ally the BJP and would prefer the Congress which can form the government at the Centre.

Many in the upper castes see similar hope in the Congress, with the BJP’s inability to attract other social groups coming in its way of becoming a significant force. The JD(U) has also ensured this waning of its influence continues. In a way, what alliance with the RJD did to the Congress, the alliance with the JD(U) is doing to the BJP in Bihar.

The UPA may have suffered, but Congress seats here are not likely to be affected. Its erstwhile allies offered it only the three seats it had won. If the Congress had fought the election in an alliance, it would have got the three seats it had. An alliance would have strengthened only the RJD and the LJP. Contesting alone, it can improve its tally somewhat this time while improving its future prospects significantly.