BJP, Cong make claims, counter-claims; both exude confidence that the seat will be theirs.
As the campaign ball has started rolling in the newly created Ahmedabad West Lok Sabha constituency, the two main nationzal parties exude confidence that the seat is theirs. They have their own logic, backed by claims and counter-claims, arguments and counter-arguments.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) thinks winning the seat is a cakewalk for the party, with stronghold assembly segments like Ellisbridge and Narendra Modi's Maninagar coming under the constituency. An internal analysis done by the BJP on the basis of 2007 assembly polls says it will lead by over two lakh votes (2,01,040).
Another estimate done on the basis of 2004 Lok Sabha voting trend gives the party a winning margin of 57,396 votes. Both the studies have, of course, taken the delimitation effect into consideration.
On the other hand, the Congress is equally upbeat. For it, delimitation has changed the caste-breakup by polarising Muslim and Dalit votes, something that will help the party. The challenge, though, remains for the party to turn these communities into pro-Congress voters.
The reserved (SC) constituency has been created with the help of two assembly segments of old Ahmedabad Lok Sabha constituency, three segments from old Gandhinagar constituency, and two newly carved out segments. While Maninagar and Jamalpur-Khadia are from old Ahmedabad, Asarwa, Ellisbridge and Dariapur are from Gandhinagar. Danilimda and Amraiwadi are the two new segments.
For both the parties, their candidates are fighting Lok Sabha polls for the first time. There is, however, a difference so far as their political experience is concerned. While Sailesh Parmer of the Congress has been an MLA, Dr Kirit Solanki of the BJP is new in politics.
When the BJP nominated Solanki, many party leaders were surprised. The 54-year-old surgeon has no experience in fighting polls. Senior leaders like Zaver Chavda, Dinesh Makwana and Jitu Vaghela were expecting the party ticket.
Though Solanki is novice so far as fighting elections is concerned, a band of experienced election managers are working for him. They are optimistic that the win is Solanki's. Besides, the strong base of party workers in the city's by-lanes is Solanki's strength. Parmer is currently Sheher Kotda MLA. The 39-year-old legislator's striking personality is his asset.
That caste is not a relevant factor is admitted by both the parties. For them development is the real issue. For the BJP, what the Narendra Modi government has done matters.
Says Bharat Barot, Dariapur-Kazipur MLA and Solanki's poll manager: "Caste factor is completely irrelevant here. Urban voters vote only on development agenda, where the BJP is obviously ahead. Modi's karma speaks for itself, which is the main issue. LK Advani, country's prime ministerial candidate, is another rallying point."
He seems so confident of his party's victory that he keeps repeating this line: "Absolutely, anybody who contests on lotus symbol will win here."
For the Congress, development schemes launched by the UPA government are in focus. Says Parmar: "Development is the only issue, and people know BJP's claims are as hollow as their promises."
As campaign heats up more in the next few days, Parmar's party may also rake up issues like razing of temples in Gandhinagar and terrorism incidents that happened during the NDA rule.
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