...Advani is still Gandhinagar’s favourite

The Gandhinagar Lok Sabha constituency will be a battle of prestige for the BJP given that the party’s prime ministerial candidate and sitting MP LK Advani is contesting the seat - for the fifth time.

That Advani will win the Gandhinagar constituency is a foregone conclusion, the only question is by what margin? In the 2004 Lok Sabha elections, Advani had won the seat with a huge margin of 2.17 lakh votes. The voting trend of the last few elections supports the party’s confidence. In the past, Advani has taken on and defeated heavyweights like TN Seshan (1999) and PK Datta (1998).

This time around, there are many contenders against Advani. While the Congress has fielded Kalol MLA Suresh Patel, danseuse Mallika Sarabhai is standing as an independent and the MJP has declared former VHP leader Sunil Trivedi as its candidate. Two other independents are also contesting.

Suresh Patel has the potential to draw a substantial chunk of the almost 2.5-lakh-strong Patel votes as well as others like OBCs, SCs, Muslims and Thakors, who have traditionally favoured the Congress.

The delimitation has changed the contours and caste equations of Gandhinagar - in favour of the BJP, many feel. The constituency now comprises Gandhinagar North, Kalol, Sanand, Ghatlodia, Vejalpur, Naranpura and Sabarmati assembly segments.
Given the importance of Thakor votes, the most interesting fight will be in the Kalol assembly segment, which was earlier part of Mehsana parliamentary constituency. This seat is with the Congress.

Says Congress MLA Suresh Patel: “Kalol is a Congress stronghold and the party will get more votes than the BJP here. People have benefited by the schemes of the Union government, like farm loan waiver and NREGA. People feel the government is concerned about them. The youth, too, are enthused by Rahul Gandhi’s leadership and many have joined the Congress after his visit to Gujarat. The BJP government has only imposed taxes and not done any work.”

Ghatlodia, Vejalpur, Naranpura and Sabarmati are dominated by Patels, Vaniyas, Brahmins, scheduled castes and Other Backward Classes (OBCs). These seats, as well as Sanand, have traditionally voted for the BJP as is brought out by voting trends in the assembly as well as the parliamentary elections.

As for poll issues, the death of two boys at Asaram ashram and the razing of some 200 temples in Gandhinagar last year may work to the disadvantage of the BJP. Some residents complain that Advani is not accessible. According to Arun Buch, a retired government official, “People had asked Advani to set up an office here, but this was not done. He has given the BJP’s Khanpur headquarters address as his local address. He has failed to take up the problem of rail connectivity with other cities of the country and the shutting down of post offices here.”

Retired IAS officer PS Bhatt says that Advani failed to take up the issue of a local-self government for Gandhinagar. “I wrote to Advani to take personal interest in the matter, but he failed to advise the state government suitably. Because we don’t have a local-self government, we are deprived of funds under the JNNURM.”

Mallika Sarabhai is likely to cut into both the BJP and Congress votes and will largely appeal to the so-called secular intelligentsia and minority voters. The major communities in the constituency are Patels, Thakors, Vaniyas, Brahmins, SCs and OBCs. A large chunk of votes from all communities other than Thakors are in BJP’s kitty. The fight will now be for the Thakor community votes, which are around 1,23,000, and have traditionally gone to the Congress. It was, perhaps, keeping this in mind that the BJP had picked up Kanaji Thakor as Ahmedabad mayor, sent Natuji Thakor to the Rajya Sabha and appointed Punjaji Thakor as the chairman of Thakor and Koli Vikas Board.