Voters swing towards big parties

In the absence of a clear national mood, psephologists and pundits predict, the outcome of the 2009 poll will again be an aggregate of state results, like the 2004 verdict. The emerging picture is a complex mosaic of myriad parties, varying issues and contrasting swings. It all points to a hung Lok Sabha, leaving the field wide open for post-poll jockeying to form the next government.

“Every state is different,” says Vinod Bajaj, CEO of Today’s Chanakya, which boasts of a near-perfect record of poll predictions. “There is no uniform swing anywhere. But I feel there may be some surprises this time.”

While Bajaj is hesitant to make a seat prediction so early in the election process, Yashwant Deshmukh, who runs the highly-successful C-Voter, feels the seat tally of both national parties – the BJP and the Congress — is likely to decline this time.

“There is a distinct possibility that for the first time, the BJP and the Congress together will get less than 272 seats. So, the national and regional parties may split the Lok Sabha 50:50 between them,” he says.

Deshmukh’s surveys have revealed that voters believe the 2009 poll will not throw up a clear verdict and they expect another election in two years. He says voters don’t feel the two national parties are contesting the election seriously.

“Neither the Congress nor the BJP has projected a prime ministerial candidate the public would like to see. Manmohan Singh and LK Advani are not popular choices. People believe the real contest will be in the next elections, between Rahul Gandhi and Narendra Modi or Sushma Swaraj,” he says.

Interestingly, both psephologists agree that public opinion is gradually shifting in favour of national parties, with voters increasingly critical of smaller parties seen as opportunistic. Bajaj feels this time, there could be a swing against parties such as the JD(S) in Karnataka or PMK in Tamil Nadu, which have switched sides in every election.
However, Deshmukh maintains regional satraps such as Mayawati and Mulayam Singh continue to hold sway in their areas. “Battles such as Mayawati vs Mulayam or Lalu vs Nitish create excitement.”

In a sharp departure from perceived wisdom, Deshmukh predicts Mulayam’s SP may be ahead of Maya’s BSP by a short hair and this could change the post-poll scene.