National parties Congress and BJP likely to end up as also-rans.
Lok Sabha 2009 promises to be a direct conflict between regional powers the Samajwadi Party (SP), headed by Yadav chieftain Mulayam Singh, and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), headed by Dalit icon Mayawati, in Uttar Pradesh (UP). National parties the BJP and the Congress would be engaged in a contest for the third place, at best.
With candidates of all main parties in UP’s electoral arena in place, the scenario is clear. Initial surveys in the media may have projected the BSP lagging behind the SP in the final tally, but the latter has a definite advantage. There are two main reasons for this corollary – first, the BSP is in power in UP and, secondly, the SP is facing brickbats from its once rock-solid Muslim vote-bank due to Mulayam’s friendship with former BJP leader and once the saffron brigade’s “Ayodhya hero” Kalyan Singh.
For the BSP, it is the voting pattern of Brahmins (13.82%) and Muslims (18.50%) that would be decisive. Mayawati’s electoral strategy is focused on cornering a big chunk of these votes. If she manages to add this to her loyal Dalit vote-bank (21%), she could easily win at least 40 of the 80 seats.
It is under this strategy that the BSP candidates’ list has the maximum number of Brahmins (20). Mayawati is seeking to repeat the performance of the 2007 assembly elections in which the BSP won more than half the seats (206 of 403) and notched the highest vote share (30.43%).
The BSP would also get the advantage of the confusion created by talks of an alliance between the Congress and the SP. Though the talks have failed, leaders of the two parties have been touting the idea of “friendly fights”. No one knows what it means. For, both parties have put up candidates against each other’s MPs. The only exceptions are Rae Bareli (Sonia Gandhi), Amethi (Rahul Gandhi), Mainpuri (Mulayam Singh), and Ferozabad and Kannauj (Mulayam’s son Akhilesh).
The BJP is in a state of disarray in UP, even though party president Rajnath Singh hails from the state and is himself contesting from Ghaziabad. Several party leaders in UP who have worked with Rajnath earlier refuse to accord him the respect he deserves as the party chief. Besides, personal ambitions of leaders such as Murli Manohar Joshi, Kalraj Misra and Vinay Katiyar are also responsible for the poor state of affairs in the BJP.
As of now, it seems both the national parties would end up as also-rans, improving their performance over 2004, but only marginally. It is the regional satraps who would scorch the electoral battlefield in UP.
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