The Bardoli Lok Sabha seat, which comprises rural areas of Surat and Tapi districts and parts of Surat city, is expected to be an easy picking for the Congress.
The Bardoli Lok Sabha seat, which comprises rural areas of Surat and Tapi districts and parts of Surat city, and was earlier known as Mandvi parliamentary constituency, is expected to be an easy picking for the Congress.
The grand old party has traditionally been strong in the seat, winning every time (from Mandvi) till 1999 when BJP candidate Mansinh Patel won for the first time. However, Patel lost to Congress candidate Tushar Chaudhary with a margin of 1.73 lakh votes in the 2004 elections.
Chaudhary, son of former Gujarat chief minister late Amarsinh Chaudhary, who had represented the Mandvi seat way back in 1971, has been re-nominated as Congress candidate for this seat, and his prospects of making it for a second time seem bright.
Bardoli is a predominantly tribal seat with around 70% of the total 14.60 lakh voters belonging to SC and ST category (ST around 65%). These votes are more or less divided equally among Chaudharys, Gamits, Vasavas and Halpatis. Muslims account for around 5% of the votes, while Dodhiya Patels and migrants account for around 50,000 votes and 25,000 votes respectively.
While a majority of the tribal voters is expected to support Chaudhary, the inclusion of Puna ward of Surat, with over 2 lakh votes, majority of them being Patels committed to BJP, could pose some problems for him. However, Chaudhary himself does not see the delimitation exercise making a big difference to the result.
"The inclusion of Puna is not a setback at all. I have nurtured my constituency very well in the last five years. I am confident of winning for the second time," Chaudhary said. However, he accepted that his winning margin may be a bit lower than the last time.
Realising the importance of votes in Puna, Chaudhary and his supporters have been spending a lot of time there for many months, a close aide of him said. "When we go to Puna to seek votes, we don't want to be seen as outsiders," the aide said.
BJP leaders, on the other hand, are hopeful of winning the seat on account of changed equations.
"Patels are our committed voters. We have seen 90-95% of them voting in our favour. The inclusion of Mangrol and Umarpada in Bardoli seat are also a positive for us. We are confident we can win the seat this time," Ashwin Patel, general secretary of Surat district BJP, said.
However, things for Chaudhary might not be as easy as Congress leaders would like one to believe. There is resentment against the sitting MP among Gamits, which might work against him. With the BJP fielding Ritesh Vasava, the Vasavas might also vote against Chaudhary.
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