Congress will need Left to rule

The Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) is most likely to win the next general election but it could need communist support to build a majority, a Reuters poll of leading analysts has predicted.

The main battle of the April/May election will be between the UPA and the NDA led by the Bharatiya Janata Party.

A group of smaller political parties, including the communists, have formally launched a “Third Front” in a bid to provide an alternative to the two main national coalitions. On average, analysts said there was a 32% chance a Congress-led alliance would win, but would need communist party support to stay in power. They said there was a 27% possibility the Congress would win without Leftist support.

The Left parties withdrew their support last year for the government over the nuclear deal, but some analysts say they could rejoin in order to stop NDA from forming government. Those polled said there was a 23% chance of an NDA victory and only an 18% possibility of a Third Front government.

Reuters surveyed 14 analysts from a variety of backgrounds.