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‘Indian economy to bounce back in the third quarter’

A deluge of Oscars is a reason for Indians to believe that the economy will bounce back in the third or fourth quarter of fiscal year 2009-10.

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A deluge of Oscars on Slumdog Millionaire, a story of rags to riches of a Mumbai slumdweller, has further consolidated India's presence on the world map. Also, it is a reason for Indians to believe that the economy will bounce back in the third or fourth quarter of fiscal year 2009-10.

These were the common sentiments at a gathering of excise and customs officials on the occasion of the 65th Excise Day at Town Hall. Speaking on the occasion as a chief guest, Samir Barua, director of Indian Institute of Management-Ahmedabad (IIM-A) said, on Tuesday, that the current scenario demands coherent steps from the government to pull the market out of the current depressed state.

According to him, the future of Indian economy will also be dependent on the coming general elections. Barua said that developed countries such as USA and UK may not be able to bounce back from the ongoing recession even by 2010, while India and China have the potential to do so. He said that the advantage that these two economies (India and China) have over others is their huge domestic markets.

Pointing at some of the crucial factors that are likely to affect the market, Barua said, "The coming general election will be crucial. If any of the two major parties comes to power, the economy will be on the rise, while a fractured government may make things difficult as there is a need to make coherent policies which can only be taken by a single largest party," Barua said.

"The two other factors will be the monsoon and the measures taken by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). Even if we receive a normal monsoon the economic growth will be back on track, while RBI will have to take decisions such as not to revise rates," Barua added.

The chief commissioner of excise department, Vijai Lakshmi Sharma said that the department, despite the downturn, has achieved its target up to January. She declared that the department has collected Rs5,553 crore while the target was Rs5,188 crore. She, however, said that growth rate has been affected due to cut in excise duties this year.

Chief commissioner, customs, Ajit Kumar and the founder of Ajanta group of companies, OR Patel, were also present.

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