The intelligence goof-up on the outcome of the elections in Nepal nearly cost India the goodwill of the victorious Maoist forces
NEW DELHI: The intelligence goof-up on the outcome of the elections in Nepal nearly cost India the goodwill of the victorious Maoist forces with national security adviser MK Narayanan publicly blessing GP Koirala’s Nepali Congress just days before the polls.
“We have a great deal of faith in Nepal prime minister GP Koirala and the Nepali Congress. We’re unsure as to where we stand with the Maoists despite professions on both sides that we can work together,” he told a private television channel on March 31. Nepal’s date with democracy was a mere 10 days away.
The basis for his confident assertion was the consistent assessment of Indian intelligence agencies that the Nepali Congress would emerge as the single largest party to lead the next government. The agencies predicted that the Communist Party of Nepal United Marxist-Leninist would come a distant second and the Maoists would stand third.
As events proved less than two weeks later, the Maoists recorded a sweeping victory, leaving both the NC and the UML far behind. It’s a measure of the goodwill India has banked with the Maoists over the past several years that neither of their top leaders, Prachanda nor Babu Ram Bhattarai, chose to make a public issue of the NSA’s remarks.
But they did convey their displeasure privately to their diplomatic interlocutors who have been their main backers through the Indian government’s many flip-flops on Nepal.
The ministry of external affairs (MEA) has now sought an explanation from the intelligence agencies on the goof-up, which nearly landed the government with egg on its face. Surprisingly, the agencies succeeded in misleading even India’s ambassador in Kathmandu, Shiv Shankar Mukherjee, who played midwife to Nepal’s tryst with democracy.
Although Mukherjee has been in close contact with the Maoists through the difficult negotiations on the roadmap to elections, he too was persuaded to echo the assessment of the intelligence agencies.
To make up for the election-eve faux pas, India rushed with its congratulations to the Maoists for their stunning performance and made strong noises about co-operating with them. Foreign minister Pranab Mukherjee was the first world leader to speak to Prachanda.
With the intelligence agencies on the defensive, the external affairs ministry is making a bid for sole proprietorship of India’s Nepal policy. The policy was almost hijacked by the security establishment, which raised fears of the “red corridor” from Nepal to Andhra Pradesh to muscle its way into the bilateral relationship.
In fact, the democratic process was in grave danger of being derailed when the security establishment, with the support of the Indian military and erstwhile royalists here, persuaded the government to resume arms supplies to the Nepal army to fight the Maoists. The decision was put on ice by some dexterous moves from key diplomats who were convinced that peace would return to Nepal only if the Maoists joined mainstream politics.
a_jerath@dnaindia.net
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