Modi victory ensures stability for UPA govt

Gain for Nandigram-scarred CPI(M) as N-deal may go for a toss

NEW DELHI: Ironical it may sound. Narendra Modi’s victory in Gujarat is a blessing in disguise for both the Congress and the Left. It has ensured the burial of the contentious India-US nuclear civilian agreement and consequently the stability of the UPA government. But the poll outcome is “worrying” for both the parties as it is “engineered by communal polarisation”.

Analysts said the result is bad for Prime Minister Manmohan Singh as he would not able to push the nuclear deal as well as pursue his pro-reform agenda, but good for the Congress in the sense that it serves as a timely warning as the party gets more than a year to take corrective measures and buck the trend in the general elections due in May 2009.

It would also keep those “adventurists” in the Congress who argue for operationalising the nuke deal and against coalition government, in leash.

For the CPI(M), the immediate gain is that the UPA government may be forced to keep the nuclear deal in cold storage and for at least a year saving the Left from taking the unpleasant task of pulling down the Congress-led government. It will also force the government to slow down the economic reforms. Now, the Congress will not behave like a big brother and think twice before dumping any of its secular allies before the next Lok Sabha polls.

The CPI(M) was at the receiving end in the wake of Nandigram killings and the Gujarat outcome would force the secular parties to close ranks and face the saffron camp unitedly.

“The results show that where the impact of communal politics is deep, electoral efforts alone are insufficient to defeat the communal forces. What is required is a determined and uncompromising struggle against the communal ideology of Hindutva and the capacity to launch sustained struggles of all sections of the people who suffered from the  rightwing economic policies of the Modi government,” the CPI(M) politburo said.

A source in  the CPI(M) said for the party, the BJP victory is like “kabhi khushi, kabhi ghum”. The party, though is happy that the outcome would check  Manmohan Singh’s bid to push through the N-deal to please “George Bush”, it is at the same time concerned at the saffron party’s bid to capture power at the Centre in circa 2009.

For the record, the CPI(M) says there is no link between Gujarat results and nuclear deal, but senior party leader and central committee member Nilotpal Basu said  “the UPA and the entire secular forces should ponder over why the BJP brand of divisive politics succeeded in Gujarat. He said the Congress or the UPA government cannot stop this kind of aggressive politics electorally, but ideologically. We have to analyse if the Congress failed ideologically.”

But Congress spokesman Abhishek Manu Singhvi denied that the poll outcome was linked to the signing of nuke deal. “Outcome of nuclear deal is not Gujarat specific but Gujarat neutral.”

Indicating that the UPA may not risk its government with signing the deal, he said, “we believe that the nuclear deal is good for the country but if you have no government, is there a way to get the deal operationalised? We believe that there is no need face death and no martyrdom.” 

“The Congress should realise that secularism alone is not enough and it should do some serious introspection over its policies particularly on the economic front. It should also rethink on the Indo-US nuclear deal and carry out mid-course correction of its policies,” CPI national secretary D Raja said.

Meanwhile, LK Advani said he was expecting mid-term parliamentary polls early next year but the Gujarat result has changed the situation. “This victory has put off the possibility of mid-term polls,” he said.

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