If the Leuva Patels were said to be Narendra Modi’s Achilles Heel in the first phase of the Gujarat polls, the tribal vote holds the key in the second phase.
Campaigning ends for final phase of polling on Sunday
NEW DELHI: If the Leuva Patels were said to be Narendra Modi’s Achilles Heel in the first phase of the Gujarat polls, the tribal vote holds the key in the second phase. The Adivasi belt in central Gujarat powered Modi’s 2002 victory when he swept on a wave of communal passion. This was Ground Zero, where some of the worse riots took place and turned the tribals away from the Congress into a raging Hindutva force.
Two years later, mired in a series of cases and abandoned by Modi, the tribals flocked back to the Congress, giving it four of the seven Lok Sabha seats from this region in the 2004 parliamentary polls. Since then, both parties have been locked in an intense battle to win hearts in an area that translates into 49 seats in a 182-member state assembly.
The outcome in the other region that will vote on Sunday, north Gujarat, is more or less settled. This is Modi’s stronghold, with 46 seats at its command. He won 31 of them in 2002 and Congress sources concede that it’s going to be difficult to dislodge him here.
Several factors seem to be working to his advantage in north Gujarat. Firstly, he hails from this area and that’s a matter of pride for the voters who point out that he’s the first chief minister from the northern part of the state. Secondly, the benefits of his development plank are most visible here.
Thirdly, the Congress has been hit by dissidence in at least seven constituencies. “Our rebels may not win, but they will damage us,’’ acknowledged a senior leader.
Most of the attention, therefore, will be on the central belt. After his losses in 2004, Modi has tried hard to recapture his fading tribal support. He’s patched up with local VHP and RSS leaders, who “Hindu-ised” the tribals in 2002. He’s also put in place several development schemes with some visible results, particularly in areas developed as a laboratory for the Hindutva ideology.
It is significant that Modi once again injected a strong communal note to his speeches in the last 48 hours of campaign. He’s obviously trying to appeal to the VHP and RSS units to mobilise the tribals on voting day.
The Congress, on the other hand, pulled out what it considers its trump card by sending Rahul Gandhi to the Adivasi area of Limdi for his first encounter with the party’s traditional vote bank. It is also depending heavily on its four MPs to consolidate their gains of 2004 and translate them into assembly seats in 2007.
Both sides realise the importance of voter mobilisation in this intensely fought election. The Congress was unable to ensure a high voter turnout in the first phase, which saw 59.9% polling. If it has to give Modi a run for his money, it will have to push really hard to push up the turnout, traditionally low among the Adivasis.
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