Narendra Modi is losing his grip on the traditional BJP strongholds of Saurashtra and Kutch, but his stranglehold on the Gujarat Plains.
MUMBAI: Narendra Modi is losing his grip on the traditional BJP strongholds of Saurashtra and Kutch, but his stranglehold on the Gujarat Plains and the North is continuing, says a DNA-IMRS opinion poll. This will help him gain the top spot in the 2007 assembly polls.
The opinion poll conducted among 3,000 men and women across Gujarat from October 30 to November 4, 2007 shows a decline in BJP’s vote share in Saurashtra and Kutch from 49% and 46% in 2002, respectively, to 40% and 43% in 2007. The 9 percentage point dip in Saurashtra is substantial and impacts the number of seats the BJP is projected to bag in 2007.
Even in the relatively less important Kutch, the decline in vote share is hurting the BJP with the party projected to come in second, behind Congress, bagging only 2 of 6 seats on offer. The poll also shows that Modi’s gamble of donning the mask of development may come undone.
Asked to rank the Gujarat government’s performance on ten issues — industrial growth, infrastructure development, agricultural growth, law and order, safety and security of minorities, economic growth, reservations, creating jobs, eradicating poverty and controlling inflation.— the survey shows Modi scores highly on bigger issues (see graphic) and quite poorly on bread and butter issues.
Modi may find out at the ground-level, as the BJP realised during the 2004 general elections, that rising prices, lack of jobs, and eradication of poverty influence voting patterns more than larger issues like state of the economy, infrastructure development, and agricultural growth
The survey shows the gap between how men and women rate Modi. But the greater headache for Modi, the survey shows, is the alienation of the minorities. In the ratings given by minorities, Modi doesn’t cross the 50% mark on any parameter. A resurgent Congress, a maverick Uma Bharati, and a confident BSP can still upset Modi’s momentum.
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