PM to Left: If you want to withdraw, so be it

NEW DELHI: The verbal duel between Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and the Left over the 123 agreement may have an unexpected diplomatic spin-off.

By taking on the Left, the PM has reaffirmed his personal commitment to the nuclear deal and sent a strong message to US President George Bush that he expects a similar push from Washington through the last three critical stages.

Before the nuclear deal becomes a done deal, it requires a safeguards agreement between India and the International Atomic Energy Agency, an India-specific waiver on nuclear exports from the Nuclear Suppliers Group and a ratification of the 123 agreement by the US Congress.

The Bush administration’s role will be crucial and it will have to give a strong push through all the three stages to overcome possible roadblocks and objections from India’s opponents who include China, Pakistan and the international non-proliferation lobby.

A source in the foreign policy establishment said that the PM-Left face-off is a demonstration of the government’s faith and is likely to work in India’s favour to get the Bush administration cracking.

The PM staked his job for the deal, first by threatening to resign after the Left rejected the 123 agreement, and then by issuing a public challenge to his Marxist partners to withdraw support to his government over their differences on the nuclear issue.

The message will be read carefully in Washington, disclosed the source, and will definitely mount pressure on the Bush administration to play a proactive role in the coming months.

While the safeguards agreement with the IAEA may not be such an issue, the US will have to work closely with India during negotiations with the NSG.

Here, the critical factor is China, which has been lobbying behind-the-scenes with smaller nations like the Scandanavian countries and New Zealand to block India’s bid for an unconditional waiver.

The NSG controls international trade in nuclear materials and India cannot buy fuel or reactors without its concurrence.

The government feels that if most countries are on board, China will find it difficult to openly oppose India. But to get the majority on its side, the government will need help from the US, arguably the most influential member of the NSG.

Finally, the 123 agreement will have to be ratified by the US Congress which is now controlled by the Democrats.

However, given the enormous powers of the US President, the government feels that if Bush lobbies strongly for the deal, it will go through. The entire process is expected to be complete by the end of the year.