Rahul Gandhi still PM material: Observers

NEW DELHI: Rahul Gandhi, scion of the nation's famed political dynasty, is still a future Indian leader, analysts and his party say, despite his failure to boost party fortunes in a pivotal state.

India's ruling Congress limped to a distant fourth place in last weekend's elections in Uttar Pradesh, India's most populous state, despite a high-profile campaign spearheaded by the 37-year-old novice politician.

"Rahul's name is still in currency as a future potential prime minister," party spokesman Abhishek Singhvi insisted, after a low-caste woman swept to power in the polls.

His future is 'bright' and the party 'expects much from his leadership,' he said.

Party leaders were initially reluctant for Rahul to take a big campaign role for fear the Harvard-educated consultant, whose father, grandmother and great grandfather were all premiers of India, would be tarred with a 'loser' image.

But analysts believe the telegenic Rahul's profile was in fact enhanced by the campaign and the result reflected the shambles of the local party's organisation, rather than any personal failings.

"You can't judge him by the number of seats," said Parsa Venkateshwar Rao, a political columnist.

"He has become the new face of the party, the party can at least say 'we're presenting you with a new generation.'"

Congress's tally fell to 22 seats from 25 in 2002 out of a total 403, in the state of 170 million people, that was dominated by the Gandhi family up to 1989.

Power was taken by the regional Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), led by Mayawati, who brought together a rainbow coalition of low caste, high caste and Muslim voters.

Surveys had forecast before the elections that Congress would be lucky to hang on to its existing seats in the Hindi-speaking heartland state.

"It was a great learning experience, he's going to gain from that experience. He's definitely bound to be a prime ministerial candidate," said independent political analyst and author Satish Jacob.

Rahul insisted throughout the campaign he was in the state for the 'long haul' to play down expectations he may be simply using it as a springboard.

The campaign was the biggest political job so far for Rahul who had only given a few wooden speeches in parliament previously. 

He unabashedly reminded voters of his prime ministerial lineage in an attempt to woo them, a pitch which ultimately failed despite euphoric receptions at some campaign stops.

On Wednesday, he conceded 'what basically happened is that we don't have an organisation there and we have to build that.' 

Congress's lone consolation was that main federal opposition Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) also fared badly.

The results were a portent of the tough fight looming for Congress and the BJP to wrest votes in the 2009 federal election in which regional parties are seen playing a much greater role, analysts said.

"If politics goes bipolar between two regional parties, a vote for a national party may come to be regarded as a 'wasted' one," commented 'Pioneer' newspaper editor Chandan Mitra.

Mayawati's win, which allowed her to form the first majority government in Uttar Pradesh in 14 years, was a 'very serious warning to both parties, to reassess their strategies," added independent analyst Mahesh Rangarajan.

"Congress had better get out of dreamland, and reinvent itself with a meaningful programme to meet the challenge of social forces," Rangarajan said.

"It cannot go back to the glories of yesteryear."   

Ironically, Congress scored some of its best poll results where Rahul's 35-year-old sister Priyanka campaigned, a fact played up by India's media. 

Priyanka is viewed as the more naturally politically gifted with an ability to connect with voters and is the image of her strong-featured grandmother, former prime minister Indira Gandhi, who was slain in 1987.

But Priyanka has opted to leave the political field clear to Rahul while she raises her two young children. 

"If Priyanka joins politics, she will definitely outshine Rahul, she's a natural leader, you see a glimpse of Mrs Indira Gandhi in her," said Jacob.