Exit polls and analysts are unanimous that the UP Assembly will be hung once again, with no party getting anywhere near the majority mark of 202 seats.
LUCKNOW: Could BJP leader Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi become UP’s next Chief Minister?
This is just one of the many possibilities being touted amid frenzied speculation in Uttar Pradesh, where political leaders wait with bated breath to know what the 1.27 lakh Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs) might have in store for them.
All exit polls and political analysts are unanimous that the UP Assembly will be hung once again, with no party getting anywhere near the majority mark of 202 seats in the 403-member House. In such a situation, government-formation could end up being a rather tricky business. Counting of votes begins at 7 am on Friday, and the following scenarios could emerge once results are out:
Scenario One
BSP forms the government with Congress support: This seems to be the one with the maximum probability, considering that the BSP would emerge as the single largest party as unanimously predicted by all exit polls. For obvious reasons, the Congress would prefer the BSP over the BJP or the Samajwadi Party (SP).
But this scenario would hold weight in Mayawati’s favour only if her party gets past the 150 mark. Only then can she expect an invitation from the Governor, and only then would the Congress, other smaller groups like Ajit Singh’s Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) and some Independents be able to help her get to the majority mark.
Scenario Two
BSP and BJP join hands to form the government once again: The BJP-BSP experiment has already been tried out thrice earlier, though without much success. Each time, the parting has been on a bitter note. Still, there is a section within the BJP, including leaders like Kalraj Misra and Lalji Tandon, who would want an encore. But, with Kalyan Singh and Rajnath Singh sure to have the last word on any decision on UP, another warm handshake with the fiery Dalit leader seems highly unlikely.
Scenario Three
SP and BJP join hands: The last but not the least interesting. At first mention, this alliance might be dismissed as abnormal or unnatural. But it might not seem as outrageous to those who have seen Mulayam’s comfort levels in the company of NDA leading lights like George Fernandes, Chandrababu Naidu, Om Prakash Chautala and Jayalalithaa. That the BJP played an active role in the formation of the Mulayam government in August 2003 when the NDA ruled the Centre is no secret
either.
In all probability, the purpose of this alliance would be to keep Mayawati at bay rather than form a coalition government which, as a senior BJP leader told DNA, “would be suicidal for both.” This objective could be the common meeting ground for Rajnath and Mulayam, and would have the complete support of Kalyan Singh, who was projected as the BJP’s Chief Ministerial candidate throughout this election.
It is in this scenario that Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi’s name figures as the “compromise candidate” for the CM’s throne. Rumours have been rife that this is Mulayam’s suggestion to the BJP as it would give him (Mulayam) a convenient minority subterfuge to join hands with the saffron brigade.
There has also been speculation that Mulayam might even entice Ajit Singh, whose RLD is expected to get about a dozen seats, with the offer of Chief Ministership in a joint
SP-BJP operation, only if to keep him from supporting Mayawati.
If none of the above scenarios work out before the midnight of May 14 - when the term of the present 14th Vidhan Sabha expires - UP would be under another spell of President’s Rule.
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