Maya will influence President’s elections

NEW DELHI: On the eve of the UP assembly results, conventional wisdom has it that the BSP chief Mayawati will be both Queen and Kingmaker in the state. Opinion polls favour her return as Chief Minister of UP for the fourth time. However, given the arithmetic of the electoral college for the Presidential elections, Mayawati will be a decisive factor in determining who will be the next President.

As things stand now the UPA, its allies, and the Left in addition to the BSP enjoy a slender edge over the NDA in the Presidential electoral college. The UPA group accounts for 5,70,000 value votes, while the NDA, SP, TDP, AIADMK put together add up to 5,20,000 value votes. This figure could change if the BSP decides to tie-up with the BJP.

The UPA is currently tight-lipped on the issue of their Presidential candidate because of the uncertainty surrounding the BSP. “This is one election both sides want to avoid,” says a UPA minister. While a defeat for either side will be a big setback, the UPA stands to lose more by virtue of being the ruling group.

If the UP results pan out in a manner that will facilitate a BSP-Congress alliance, it might take the initiative on the issue. Or it might be forced to go in for a consensus candidate. Either way UP or Mayawati hold the key.