The northwest region is expected to cumulatively receive only around 91 per cent of the normal rainfall during the monsoon this year.
NEW DELHI: With the monsoon weakening after pouring over central, peninsular and parts of northwest India, the wait has begun for the next surge that will bring rains to Delhi and surrounding areas - hopefully by the weekend.
“It is normal to get rainfall in surges of four to seven days, followed by a lull and then another surge,” said SK Subramanian, deputy director general of the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
The low pressure that developed into a deep depression to bring good rainfall in Orissa, has advanced to central India and further to western Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and southeast Rajasthan. Delhi might be next.
“Though the pressure has weakened, the upper cloud monsoon system still persists. This gives hope that moisture from the Arabian Sea will bring another surge leading to widespread rainfall in the northwest region, including Delhi,” Subramanian said. “We may have to wait till the weekend for monsoon rains in Delhi and the neighbouring region,” he said, admitting that the below normal rainfall in the northwest region was a cause of concern.
The northwest region, including Gujarat, Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab and Delhi, are expected to cumulatively receive only around 91 per cent of the normal rainfall during the monsoon this year. The monsoon pattern is not typical this year, with better rains in southern region and below normal in northeast region. Though this pattern isn’t alarming as the southern region usually gets heavy rain. Central India has also been receiving good and widespread rains over the past few days.
The Met office has forecast heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places over the Konkan region, Goa, Maharashtra and Gujarat for the next 24 hours before the intensity abates. In the case of north India, barring the plains of Punjab, Haryana and Delhi, the rest of the region including Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttaranchal has been receiving good monsoon rains in the last few days.
The IMD has lowered the forecast of the four-month southwest monsoon from June-September to 92 per cent of long period average (LPA), plus or minus four per cent. It is, however, hopeful that rains in July, the wettest period of the four-month southwest monsoon that accounts for 80 per cent of the rainfall in the country, is plentiful and widespread.
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