New peaks in kharif output of food crops & others likely; may ease inflation.
The southwest monsoon season has formally ended, with rain in the June-September period notching a surplus of 1% over the long period average (LPA) for the four months. The surplus has proved wrong a forecast by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) that there might be a shortfall of 5%.
Cumulatively, the quantum of rainfall for the four-month period amounted to 899.8mm, a trifle lower than the previous year’s 911.1mm, but still higher than the LPA of 886.9mm. The IMD had said in its second stage forecast that the quantity of rain would be 95% of the LPA, with a margin of error of +/- 4%.
While the actual rainfall was more than the upper limit in the IMD forecast, farmers are also pleased with the behaviour of the monsoon spatially and temporally.
The government, too, has reason to be happy as ample rainfall and the resultant benign impact on standing kharif crops may give it greater leverage to combat inflation, stubbornly hovering close to double digits.
Qualitatively, too, monsoon 2011 has proved to be one of the best in recent times, with rainfall higher than the LPA in three months — June, August and September — and the number of meteorological subdivisions subject to deficient rains numbering a mere three and accounting for just 8% of the country’s geographical area.
The mood is already upbeat on the farm front. According to official circles, the normal area under kharif crops — 1,050 lakh hectares — has been somewhat exceeded this year and the sown crops are in fine shape.
In its first advance estimate, the government is predicting a bumper kharif foodgrain harvest of 123.88 million tonnes, with the principal crop, rice, projected to surpass the target set for the year and reach 87.10 million tonnes. The prospects of cash crops like cotton, oilseeds and sugarcane, too, are seen to be bright with their production tipped to scale new highs.
Meanwhile, the rabi operations are set to commence in favourable conditions. The delay in withdrawal of the monsoon, apart from benefiting the standing kharif crops in their ripening stage, may help to augment the subsoil moisture.
Moreover, the crucial hathia (early October) rains have boosted levels in major reservoirs. As per the latest data, the storage level in 87 major reservoirs in the country is 118% higher than what it was a year ago and 131% of the 10-year average level.
With one key constraint thus removed, rabi prospects appear to be good. Overall, the target of 245 million tonnes of grain production in 2011-12 may be within reach.
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