Cong, MNS are Mumbai’s pick

The Shiv Sena’s performance in Mumbai in these elections has been so pathetic that even Matoshree, leader Bal Thackeray’s residence, would have trembled at the rejection. Only four seats in the city (down from eight in 2004), tells its own story, but more gallingly for the denizens of Matoshree, the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) has won six.

Has the Sena tiger been bearded in its own lair? What explains the result, and is there any hope of a quick recovery from here? This is, after all, the city where the party was born and nurtured, and established such a strong power base that Bal Thackeray’s writ would make government(s) in Delhi cringe with fear. 

The astonishing defeat is shrouded in several theories, not all of them necessarily correct.  Yet, it would be fair to say that the Shiv Sena has been stymied by one of its own. The emergence of Raj Thackeray’s MNS has not only taken away the Sena’s bluster and sting, but also a substantial chunk of its committed votes.

Shell-shocked leaders of the Sena and the BJP were in agreement that something had gone amiss. Gopinath Munde, who will perhaps face the most flak for the debacle along with Uddhav Thackeray, was however unfettered in his opinion: Raj Thackeray had queered the pitch completely.

Even if unsaid categorically as yet, the results reflected the failure of the Sena leadership which compelled a substantial number of Marathi voters to bestow their trust in Raj Thackeray.

He began by attacking his cousin Uddhav on key issues. For instance, in the campaign against the hike in power tariff, which Uddhav tried to hijack, Raj showed how the Sena mouthpiece Saamna was accepting ads from the same company which was exploiting
consumers.

This struck an instant chord in middle-class hearts and minds.

The other important factor which worked in MNS’s favour obviously was the turbo-charged issue of `Marathi manoos’ and identity politics. “The Shiv Sena started identity politics, but was compelled to take up the Hindutva issue when it decided to become a national party,’’ says Prakash Bal, a senior political analyst in the city.

Of course, not everybody agrees that the Shiv Sena has lost because of the arrival of the MNS. The current tilt back towards the Congress, say some analysts, indicates that people want development and a better future.

 “Nationally we are seeing a trend of the voter going back to the Congress. Today’s results indicate strongly that people have rejected religious, communal and identity politics,” says Bal. “In Mumbai too the middle class is growing and the shift is towards the centre or middle. People are looking for economic opportunities and we may see more of this with technological growth and our GDP.”

Analysts also feel that while the Congress and MNS have shown strong leaders, the Shiv Sena has been unable to find a suitable replacement for Bal Thackeray who has virtually retired from active politics.

“There is Rahul Gandhi who is doing things which seems to have sent a strong message to the masses. He travelled by train, lived in the hut of a Dalit…such symbolism is important in Indian politics. Raj has his own style of politics which everybody does not agree with, but he has still exposed the lack of leadership or charisma in the Sena,’’ says Bal.
Whatever the true reasons, results from Mumbai have brought cheer to the Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party. The alliance has been not only retained its seats in strongholds like Colaba, Chembur, Worli, Bandra and Andheri but also made a dent in Kandivali east, Kalina, Anushakti Nagar, Sion-Koliwada — all new, post-delimitation seats.

Meanwhile, the Shiv Sena, mauled badly, is left to lick its wounds.