Most opinion polls point to emergence of the Congress-NCP combine as frontrunners to once again form the government in Maharashtra, albeit with a reduced majority.
Most opinion polls point to emergence of the Congress-NCP combine as frontrunners to once again form the government in Maharashtra, albeit with a reduced majority.
The Sena-BJP combine will be hoping that the results of the assembly elections, like those of the Lok Sabha elections in the summer, will prove the political pundits and opinion polls wrong.
However, it’s not just the Sena and BJP who are fretting over the outcome of the Maharashtra assembly elections. Both sides have a lot riding on the elections.
Maharashtra is the only large state apart from Andhra Pradesh where the Congress is in power, that too in a coalition, and failure to hold on to the state would be a big blow to it. Though it is unlikely to destabilise the UPA government at the centre, it could prompt the government to go in for some more populist schemes.
Defeat in Maharashtra will not only provide a fillip to the opposition, but could also lead the Congress to rethink its policy towards the Third Front and former allies like Lalu Yadav ahead of the elections in Jharkhand later in the year and Bihar next year.
For NCP, a battle for survival
As for the NCP, it will in fact be worse off. If the combine fails to regain power in Maharashtra, the NCP’s home state, its strength and ability to play a meaningful role outside the state will be severely hindered. Political pundits believe that the current assembly elections amount to a battle for survival for the NCP and even a below par showing by the party could have a significant impact on it.
It is bound to bring the party under renewed pressure from its adversaries and ironically even from its ally the Congress. Questions are already being raised about the rationale for the continuation of the party as a separate entity from the Congress, now that the “foreign origin issue” has been firmly put to rest. Were the party to lose power in its stronghold of Maharashtra, it could lead to people in the party questioning the wisdom of the continuation of the NCP. “They will be faced with an existential crisis, and some very uncomfortable questions will be asked of Sharad Pawar,” says Prof Subrata Mukerjee, a professor in the department of political science at Delhi University.
For Congress, a consolidation
Of course, all that would be mere hypothesis if the results were to pan out the way they are being projected. If the predictions hold true, it will be yet another shot in the arm for the Congress party which will strengthen the party’s hold at the centre. Many people fear it could also tempt it to bear down on its allies.
“They will certainly take a lot of confidence from it. It will also once again lend credence to those elements within the party who believe that the Congress must aggressively seek to recapture the space that it has yielded to regional and smaller parties,” says political analyst Mahesh Rangarajan.
A victory in Maharashtra and Haryana on the heels of its remarkable showing in the Lok Sabha polls is likely to embolden the Congress to aggressively pursue its policies and may even provide the much needed confidence to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to take some bold initiatives with regard to both economic and foreign policy. A victory in Maharashtra may well also mean that the Congress party may not feel the need to adopt a more accommodating attitude towards the Third Front. “We should and must try and regain our position in all the states,” says BK Hariprasad, AICC General secretary.
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