UP polls: BSP insiders see defeat staring them in the face

Some of the BSP insiders see defeat staring them in the face in the Uttar Pradesh assembly election. They are no doubt the discontented and disgruntled elements in the party, who feel left out and neglected. They picture a gloomy outcome.

In their view, the main reason for the BSP will lose power on Tuesday would be mainly the fact that party leader and chief minister Mayawati kept aloof from people as well as party legislators and that she was surrounded by a ‘human wall’ — another term for the chief minister’s coterie. “She was dependent on bureaucrats,” said a BSP source. They draw the comparison with Mulayam Singh Yadav. “Any SP legislator can meet him (Mulayam) any time, and he meets with cordiality, as a senior leader to younger colleagues. This is the quality that is missing in Behenji.”

There is the clear perception that the voter’s preference has changed. The BSP source said, “If you look at the result of the 2009 Lok Sabha election you would notice that no “bahubali” (strong man) was elected, nor was anyone with an explicit criminal record. People are not even voting for parties. They are voting for the candidate’s individual credibility and for a developmental agenda.”

It is also pointed out that in the 2009, the BSP should have capitalised on its 2007 victory. It should have won about 40 Lok Sabha seats based on its 2007 performance. But it won just 20. It was clear that between 2007 and 2009 the BSP government lost 50% of its popularity, say BSP analysts.

According to BSP sources, the party could lose nearly 50% of the 206 seats it had won in 2007. That would leave the party with about 100 seats and less, and most probably in the second slot, behind the SP. Mayawati is apparently anxious that the party’s candidates should win and she has been speaking to some of the middle rung leaders to find ways of doing so. They say that the appeal for help has come a little late in the day. And they feel suffocated because there is no room for an open debate in the party. It should not come as a surprise if some of them abandon the defeated party.

They do not, however, think the party would crumble once out of power. “This party has come into existence because it gave voice to the oppressed and the marginalised. It has an ideological content. Though it is true that Mayawati is the sole leader, the party has substance apart from the leader. That is why, it will survive.”

There is also a note of deep regret in the voice of the unhappy insiders when they say that the 2007 verdict was a rare opportunity for the party and that it was thrown away. One of them said: “She had a gold opportunity and she let it go. She caught the ball with buttered hands and she dropped it.”