Moment of truth in afghanistan-pakistan war

India is anxiously watching from the sidelines as President Barack Obama weighs his options in Afghanistan. New Delhi may not be a major player in the war against the Taliban-Al Qaeda in Afghanistan, not having committed troops there, but remains an important stake holder.

This is even more significant now because it is not just in Afghanistan that the jihadi forces are upping the ante, but also in Pakistan which has been wracked by repeated suicide attacks by the Tehrik-e-Taliban, which is no longer confined to the tribal badlands of Waziristan.

In the next few weeks, as the US President takes a call on whether to send in more troops as requested by the army and reviews his Af-Pak strategy, the world is hoping he strikes the right chord.

On this decision wrests the future of Afghanistan:  whether it becomes a moderate Islamic democratic state or a country which has slipped into the dark ages, offering a springboard for the international jihadi movement and exporting suicide bombers to the rest of the world.

President Obama also has to consider the implications of further American deaths in Afghanistan.  The domestic compulsions on him are enormous. He is well aware of the fears of another Vietnam-like situation turning public opinion totally against the US involvement in Afghanistan.

Led by vice-president Joe Biden, a section of the White House feels that a political solution aimed at engaging the moderate Taliban should be pursued more vigorously.

But this is a long process, and strategic analysts in New Delhi are worried about the resurgence of terrorist forces if the pressure on them is let off. In fact, surveys have found that 90 per cent of Afghan territory is terrorist-free, and it is just 10 per cent of the territory adjoining Pakistan which is making all the difference. So the strategy should be to concentrate on that area, and persuade the Pakistan army to hit the Taliban hard in their tribal regions and break the back of the enemy.

“The US should concentrate militarily on this 10 per cent of territory and let the rest of Afghanistan be. Grand ideas of bringing in Western style democracy and building institutions will not work while the Taliban and Al Qaeda continue to operate. The focus for now must be on crushing terrorism,” says former foreign secretary Lalit Mansingh.

Analyst Jasjit Singh agrees with Mansingh that US style democracy is not the answer for Afghanistan. He feels that the US needs to have more troops in Afghanistan to wipe off the extremist elements, while the tribal councils are allowed to continue as they have done for ages.

Mansingh also says that the Obama administration must now concentrate more on Pakistan than Afghanistan. “I would recommend a Pak-Af policy more than the current  Af-Pak one,” he says, and the Indian establishment agrees with him here.

“The Taliban and Al Qaeda forces must be crushed not just in Afghanistan but in the tribal areas of Pakistan. This is a must. If this means more American and NATO troops in our region, so be it. The world must do whatever it takes to crush the Taliban,” an Indian official who did not wish to be identified said. “But even more important, Washington has to get the Pakistan army to take on the Taliban seriously,” the official added.

The view in Delhi is that the Pakistan military can take on the Taliban head on and crush it if the army really wishes  to. “They know the Taliban and its various offshoots inside out and understand their psychology, unlike the American and NATO commanders. All that is required of the army is the will to eliminate them,’’ says a senior Indian official, on condition of anonymity. “The question is whether the army is willing to launch an all-out offensive against forces they nurtured and used in the past.”