As Rajya Sabha takes up women’s quota bill today, opponents fear losing relevance.
With all major political parties aligned behind it, the historic Women’s Reservation Bill may have a smooth passage in the Rajya Sabha on Monday, but the game changer in Indian politics is likely to introduce turbulence into the existing political equations in the country.
The bill, by making 33% reservation statutory, will raise the number of women members in the 543-member lower house to 181, a quantum leap in representational politics — the present house has just 59 members.
However, this might leave regional satraps arraigned against it marginalised and subsequently, the current coalition preferences in danger.
Past experience has left both the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) jittery. On earlier occasions, the bill stirred passionate opposition, with its copies being torn in the house and senior leaders like Sharad Yadav (Janata Dal-United) even threatening suicide. The Samajwadi Party (SP), the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) have always been ranged against it and are likely to put up a dogged fight this time too.
The RJD, for example, has till not long ago been part of a Congress-led coalition. The SP, too, has been a supporter, though a reluctant one, of the ruling arrangement in crucial situations. Voting is likely to leave the parties politically isolated, even irrelevant. Given their hardened position, they will find it hard to align with or back the Congress again.
The JDU - divided on the issue right now - will find it hard to go with the BJP after losing face over the bill. A political realignment may be on the cards soon.
But, despite angry words from leaders like Lalu Prasad, Mulayam Singh and Sharad Yadav, political observers feel this is the most opportune moment to ensure the passage of the bill. It will also change politics the way it is now.
The sheer quantum of talent required would perforce make parties search outside of political dynasties for women’s leadership, hopefully democratising the exclusive genetic pool of women leaders in the country. In number terms, among the 181 members, 41 will be from the scheduled tribes and castes.
Leader of the opposition in the Rajya Sabha Arun Jaitley expressed his inability to predict what would happen on Monday morning. “But the majority of the members of the Rajya Sabha are in favour and therefore there is no chance like the present to clear the bill,” he said.
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