Even jumbo moves fail to hold Maya’s statues up

Uttar Pradesh (UP) chief minister (CM) Mayawati’s biggest failure in this hectic, month-long poll campaign has been her inability to deflect the corruption charges levelled at her by her opponents.

No, she has not taken those allegations lying down. She has defended herself, launched a bitter counter-attack, but somehow failed to convince the electorate that money from the National Rural Health Mission or MNREGA has not reached her party coffers or been used to construct her amazing parks.

As the campaign draws on, it becomes even more difficult to buck the anti-incumbency trend. From villagers in Barabanki demanding basic amenities such as continuous electricity and clean drinking water to jaded Lucknow townspeople tired of endless traffic snarls and craters on unrepaired roads, Mayawati’s governance has spawned too many critics. They are convinced that if she had not concentrated on creating a Dalit legacy by erecting her own statues, the state would have had a healthier economy.

And there has been a significant erosion of her votes. Even her loyal Dalit vote-bank appears somewhat fractured this time with a handful downtrodden caste groups grumbling that she had not looked after their interests. The poorer Brahmins who were charmed by her social engineering tactics of 2007 have quietly slipped away. And the Muslims who supported her have realised that either Samajwadi Party (SP) or Congress would better represent them.

No doubt, the woman who had created history five years ago by securing a simple majority on her own in a politically fragmented state like UP may well be the maximum loser this time.

But that does not mean she would be decimated and her seat-share would plummet to less than 20%. Even if she loses, Mayawati will obtain enough votes to ensure that the final verdict is chaotic and throws up a hung assembly. She may not come first in the four-cornered contest but it also unlikely that she will be relegated to the third place.
And there are several reasons why Mayawati cannot be written off completely. She herself cleansed her party machinery by denying tickets to more than 100 sitting MLAs. She planned her battle meticulously and was the first to be ready with a list of candidates, giving them adequate time for preparation. She can also rely on the well-oiled election machinery which has successfully delivered on earlier occasions.

Another reason why her main rival, the SP, cannot be a runaway winner is that Mayawati’s five-year tenure was not about ‘goonda raj’. When the SP enjoyed power till 2007, their leaders threw their weight around, the police machinery looked away as SP thugs pillaged and plundered. On polling day in Lucknow, 4,000 families of the city’s Cantonment area came out to vote for Mayawati. They were grateful to her for the homes she had built for them.

It is not Mayawati’s campaign alone which is lacklustre and without sting. Even the BJP is unable to break new ground in this electorally sensitive state with its confused approach. With the Hindutva plank failing to entice voters, the BJP has found it difficult to apply its theory of Hindu consolidation. UP is so much about caste politics that unifying a majority with a single religious identity is next to impossible.

From the beginning, the BJP strategy has been far from purposeful. Inviting the BSP-reject Babu Lal Kushwaha to its fold has been a politically myopic move and its backlash, even after Kushwaha’s exit, has been difficult to bear. Uma Bharti had been handed over the reins of leadership, but being an outsider, she is hardly somebody who can keep the numerous factions together.

The party’s central leaders have all been flying in and canvassing for individual nominees but their efforts have never really coalesced. Apart from targeting its three opponents - the SP, BSP and the Congress - in a tired and repetitive political idiom, the BJP does not have much to offer. But even then it might not be a huge loser when compared to last time. At best, the BJP is aiming desperately for the third spot.